TESLA STOCK ANALYSIS - Still a Buy or Wait? Intrinsic Value Calculation!

TL;DR

Tesla stock's Q1 2021 earnings showed strong delivery growth, particularly in Model 3 and Model Y, which are the main revenue drivers. Tesla's long-term growth catalysts include increasing adoption of EVs, decreasing cost per vehicle, and upcoming innovations. Risks include global chip shortage, increasing competition, and low operating margins. Tesla's fair intrinsic value ranges from $489 to $942 per share.

Transcript

hello everyone this victor here welcome to the intelligent investor channel several subscribers asked me to make an updated stock analysis video about tesla stock just right before making this video tesla announced their latest q1 2021 earnings and deliveries many people ask is tesla stock still a buy right now and is tesla stock currently overweig... Read More

Key Insights

• 🎅 Model 3 and Model Y are the main revenue drivers for Tesla, surpassing the growth of Model S and Model X.
• 👨‍💼 Tesla's core business focuses on selling Model 3 and Model Y, while its energy and solar roof businesses are not significant revenue contributors yet.
• 🚙 Tesla's long-term growth catalysts include the increasing adoption of electric vehicles worldwide, decreasing cost per vehicle, and upcoming innovations in the form of new products and services.
• 🎴 Risks for Tesla include the global chip shortage, growing competition from other car manufacturers, and low operating margins.
• 🏃 Government support for electric vehicles, such as incentives and infrastructure investment, is expected to benefit Tesla in the long run.
• 🧡 Tesla's fair intrinsic value varies based on different growth scenarios and assumptions, ranging from $489 to $942 per share.
• 🙃 The author personally owns Tesla shares and believes in the company's dominant position in the EV market and its long-term growth prospects.

Questions & Answers

Q: How did Tesla's Q1 2021 earnings perform, and what were the key takeaways?

Tesla's Q1 2021 earnings showed strong delivery growth, with total deliveries reaching 596,028 vehicles in the past four quarters. The most significant growth came from Model 3 and Model Y, which delivered 182,780 vehicles in Q1 2021, a 140% increase year-over-year. Key takeaway: Model 3 has become the best-selling luxury sedan globally, surpassing the BMW 3 Series.

Q: What are Tesla's long-term growth catalysts?

Tesla's long-term growth catalysts include the increasing adoption of electric vehicles worldwide, ongoing government support, and the company's ability to decrease the cost per vehicle. The company aims to achieve 50% average annual growth in vehicle deliveries, expand its production capacity globally, and leverage its competitive advantage in manufacturing and battery technology.

Q: What are the key risks for Tesla?

The first major risk for Tesla is the global shortage of semiconductor chips, which impacts all car manufacturers. Tesla also faces increasing competition from other car manufacturers entering the electric vehicle market. Additionally, Tesla's low operating margins pose a risk, as the company needs to reinvest most of its capital into the business to support its growth.

Q: What is Tesla's fair intrinsic value?

Tesla's fair intrinsic value ranges from $489 to $942 per share, depending on different growth scenarios and assumptions. The calculations consider future cash flow discounted to the present day. Current market cap as of April 2021 is $683 billion. The estimates suggest that Tesla may be overvalued at the current stock price, depending on the growth scenario.

Summary & Key Takeaways

• Tesla's Q1 2021 earnings revealed robust delivery growth, especially in Model 3 and Model Y vehicles, which are key revenue drivers for the company.

• The long-term growth catalysts for Tesla include the increasing adoption of electric vehicles worldwide, decreasing cost per vehicle, and upcoming innovations such as the Cybertruck, Tesla Semi, and Roadster.

• Risks for Tesla include the global chip shortage, growing competition from other car manufacturers, and the company's low operating margins.

• Tesla's fair intrinsic value ranges from $489 to $942 per share, depending on different growth scenarios and assumptions.