🔴Fear And Politics Moving European Markets (w/Dr. Irene Finel-Honigman)

TL;DR

The UK needs to be cautious about sparking social violence or a sense of outrage and anger during the Brexit process, as seen in other countries. European countries also have a simmering anger against elites and political decisions, which could lead to major movements of rage.

Transcript

I think one lesson is what happened right after breakfast was announced right after June 23rd 2016 where the immediate response was the Dow fell 600 points the pound suddenly looked like it was about to crash Everything looked like oh my god, we've hit, you know disaster again and after 48 hours have calmed down Do you see any evolution in the near... Read More

Key Insights

• 💀 Politicians in the UK need to be careful not to ignite social violence or a sense of outrage and anger during the Brexit process.
• 🥺 European countries have a simmering anger against the political class and decisions made by elites, which could lead to major movements of rage.
• ❓ The UK should be cautious about the potential consequences of a second referendum, as it could ignite social unrest.
• 🤝 Economic fundamentals may remain solid despite political crises, but the psychological perception of a no-deal Brexit could still have damaging effects.
• 💀 Historical experiences show that European countries have a tendency to reach the edge of anger and pull back, recognizing the need to avoid chaos.
• 💀 Disenfranchisement and discontent with political decisions run deep in countries, and the sense of betrayal by elites fuels anger.
• 🧑‍🏭 Market responses to political crises are often short-lived, and larger global factors have a greater impact.

Questions & Answers

Q: What can the UK learn from the Yellow Vest movement in France regarding social violence during political crises?

The Yellow Vest movement in France was ignited by a false move from President Macron and resulted in widespread vandalism and violence. The UK should be extremely careful about not sparking a genuine sense of outrage and anger during the Brexit process to avoid similar consequences.

Q: How deep is the sense of disenfranchisement and marginalization in countries, and how does it relate to the UK?

Disenfranchisement and discontent with regional and global entities run deep within countries, including the UK. The sense of betrayal by elites making decisions without considering the population's needs is fueling anger across Europe, making it crucial for politicians to address these issues.

Q: Why is it important for European countries to be cautious and not get too close to the abyss of anger and violence?

European countries have a deep sense of their own history, including major revolutions and changes that often started with anger and led to chaos. They have learned from their past experiences that it is essential to avoid crossing the line into violence and chaos, as it can have disastrous consequences.

Q: Is there a risk that Brexit-related events could trigger a serious global downturn?

While the Brexit announcement in 2016 initially caused panic in the markets, the fundamentals of the economies remained solid. It is unlikely that Brexit alone will precipitate a long-term downturn, but there may be other reasons for a global economic crisis.

Summary & Key Takeaways

• The UK needs to be careful that politicians do not ignite a genuine sense of outrage and anger during the Brexit process, as seen with the Yellow Vest movement in France.

• European countries have a simmering level of anger against the political class and decisions made by elites, which could lead to major movements of rage.

• The UK should be cautious about potential social violence or loss of control if a second referendum were to occur.