Technical Take on the S&P and Commodities (w/ John Kolovos) | Trade Ideas

TL;DR

John Kolovos of Macro Risk Advisors suggests going long on the S&P 500 with a target price of 3065 by the end of the year, while also recommending shorting oil with a target price of 60 over the next one to three months. He is bearish on commodities, including palladium, which he believes could reach as low as 1208 over the next three months.

Transcript

[MUSIC PLAYING] Welcome to Real Vision's Trade Ideas. Today we're sitting down with John Kolovos of Macro Risk Advisors. Great to have you here. Thank you for having me. Now this is your first time on Real Vision. Could you give us a little bit of your background and what you do at Macro Risk Advisors? Sure. I've been doing this for about 20 years ... Read More

Key Insights

• 💁 Kolovos analyzes technical indicators such as trend channels, support and resistance levels, and breadth indicators to form his trade ideas.
• ✋ He emphasizes the importance of using trailing stops to manage risk and adapt to changing market conditions.
• 🧑‍🏭 Kolovos considers global markets and sentiment as additional confirming factors for his trade ideas.

Questions & Answers

Q: Why does John Kolovos believe that stocks are in a long-term bull market?

Kolovos bases his belief on the breakout in 2013, which confirmed a long-term uptrend that has been in place since 2009. He also looks at breadth indicators, such as the percentage of stocks advancing, which showed strong demand and confirmed the long-term bull market.

Q: What technicals is Kolovos looking at for the S&P 500?

Kolovos considers the trend channel from 2009 and the support and resistance levels it has provided. He also emphasizes the importance of using trailing stops, with the 50-day moving average as a key level to watch for the S&P 500.

Q: Why is Kolovos bearish on oil?

Kolovos believes oil is in a long-term downtrend and expects it to reach a target price of 40 and eventually 30 over the next few years. He cites the peak in 2009 and subsequent declines in the commodity as evidence of a secular bear market.

Q: What is the target price and timeframe for betting against palladium?

Kolovos suggests that palladium is in a bear flag consolidation pattern, with a target price of 1208 over the next three months. He would use a stop loss above 1470 to manage risk.

Summary & Key Takeaways

• John Kolovos is a technical strategist at Macro Risk Advisors with 20 years of experience.

• He believes that stocks are in a long-term bull market and expects the S&P 500 to reach 3065 by the end of the year.

• Kolovos is bearish on commodities, particularly oil, with a target price of 60 in the short term and expectations of a long-term decline to 30.

• He also suggests betting against palladium, with a target price of 1208 over the next three months.