How COVID 19 Is Squeezing the U.S. Housing Market (w/ Keith Jurow & Jack Farley)

TL;DR

Keith Jurow, a housing analyst, challenges the mainstream narrative of a strong housing recovery, highlighting regional disparities and the impact of COVID-19 on the market.

Transcript

JACK FARLEY: Hi, everyone. I'm Jack  Farley. I'm here with Keith Jurow.   Keith Jurow is a housing analyst. He's  been a long time Real Vision fan favorite,   pointing out the risks that are  hidden in the housing market that   others can't see. He's a columnist at MarketWatch.  You can get his columns at marketwatch.com. Keith,   welcome back to R... Read More

Key Insights

• 🇳🇨 Sales of new homes may appear strong on the surface, but a closer look reveals regional disparities with the majority of sales concentrated in the southern region and driven by people leaving major cities like New York.
• 🥺 Existing home sales figures may be unreliable, leading to a distorted view of the housing market's strength.
• 🤨 Rising delinquency rates among FHA insured mortgages raise concerns about the stability of the market.

Questions & Answers

Q: Why does Keith Jurow believe that the mainstream narrative of a housing recovery is incorrect?

Jurow argues that the recovery is built on false narratives and hidden risks, citing regional disparities in sales and rising delinquency rates as evidence.

Q: What concerns does Jurow have regarding new home sales figures?

While the seasonally adjusted figures may appear strong, Jurow emphasizes that a closer look at raw, unadjusted sales shows that the majority of sales are concentrated in the southern region, particularly as people leave major cities like New York.

Q: How does Jurow assess the reliability of existing home sales figures?

Jurow is critical of existing home sales figures provided by organizations like the National Association of Realtors, preferring to reference numbers from online brokerage firms like Redfin, which he considers more accurate.

Q: What are the key risks highlighted by Jurow in the housing market?

Jurow points to rising delinquency rates among FHA insured mortgages, the potential for foreclosure and eviction moratoriums to end, and the impact of COVID-19 on the commercial real estate market as key risks in the housing market.

Summary & Key Takeaways

• Keith Jurow has been critical of the so-called housing recovery, arguing that it is built on false narratives and hidden risks.

• He points out that while new home sales may appear strong, a closer look reveals that the majority of sales are concentrated in the southern region and driven by people leaving major cities like New York.

• Furthermore, Jurow questions the reliability of existing home sales figures and expresses concerns about rising delinquency rates among FHA insured mortgages.