Stuart Stevens and Josh Kraushaar on RNC Day Two

TL;DR

The Trump convention raises questions about the effectiveness of their messaging, particularly targeting suburban voters and addressing issues of law and order and violence in cities. However, the impact of these conventions on the race is uncertain, and their importance may be exaggerated by the media.

Transcript

welcome to the bulwark podcast we are taping the morning after day two of the latest trump festival i want to start off before we get going and by the way we're joined by uh two of our favorite guests stuart stevens of course a longtime political guru the author of the best-selling book it was all a lie and josh crash hour from the national journal... Read More

Key Insights

• ⁉️ The effectiveness of the Trump campaign's messaging to suburban voters is still uncertain, and their ability to recreate the 2016 coalition is in question.
• 🏛️ The Democrats may have missed an opportunity to appeal to working-class moderate voters and address the issue of violence in cities.
• 🐎 The impact of the conventions on the race is uncertain, and the media's focus on these events may be overblown.

Questions & Answers

Q: Can the Trump campaign recreate the coalition that allowed him to win in 2016?

It is unclear if the Trump campaign can recreate the same coalition in 2020, as he has lost ground with even his reluctant supporters from four years ago. The key will be whether he can appeal to a broad range of voters beyond his base.

Q: Did the Democrats miss an opportunity to address the issue of violence in cities and appeal to working-class moderate voters?

It appears that the Democrats may have neglected messaging to working-class moderate voters who defected in 2016. While they focused on messages appealing to upscale moderates, they did not effectively address the concerns of those who felt left behind.

Q: How will the issue of violence in cities impact the election?

Violence in cities has emerged as a major issue in recent weeks, with many voters, including independents and even some Democrats, expressing concerns. The Republicans have been able to use this issue to their advantage, while the Democrats have been criticized for not addressing it adequately.

Q: Does the violation of the Hatch Act and the use of the White House as a prop matter to voters?

While these actions may be seen as unethical and a violation of norms, it is unclear if they will have a significant impact on voters. Trump's base is unlikely to be swayed by such actions, and the importance of these events may be inflated by the media.

Summary & Key Takeaways

• The Trump campaign used diverse messengers and strong rhetoric to appeal to middle-class suburbanites who supported the President in 2016, but it remains to be seen if this strategy will be successful in winning over reluctant supporters.

• The Democrats had a strong convention, particularly appealing to upscale moderates, but may have neglected messaging to working-class moderate voters who defected in 2016.

• Law and order, violence in cities, and the coronavirus pandemic emerged as key issues in the convention, though the Republicans may have been lacking in their response to the pandemic.

• Despite the focus on these issues, the impact of the conventions on the race remains uncertain, and their long-term relevance is questionable.