Josh Kraushaar on the GOP's Down-ballot Problem

TL;DR

The Trump campaign is facing numerous challenges, including scandals, a lack of political strategy, and a growing number of GOP defections, while Biden remains calm and steady in his campaign.

Transcript

welcome to the bulwark podcast i'm charlie sykes it's october 7th 2020 which uh of course is kind of a milestone of sorts because four years ago today october 7 2016 you remember that the access hollywood tapes were dropped our guest today is josh crushauer from the national journal josh i bet you can remember where you were when you heard about th... Read More

Key Insights

• 🥳 The number of prominent Republicans breaking with Trump and endorsing Biden is unprecedented and demonstrates the level of discontent within the party.
• 🤗 The scandal involving Cal Cunningham, a Democratic Senate candidate, could impact the race in North Carolina, especially if voters perceive him as sleazy. It opens an opportunity for the vulnerable Republican incumbent, Thom Tillis.
• 🫷 The Supreme Court nomination process and the handling of COVID-19 are becoming intertwined, with Republicans potentially pushing through the confirmation without full democratic consideration. This could further damage their image and impact ongoing races.
• 🐕‍🦺 The upcoming vice presidential debate between Kamala Harris and Mike Pence will be pivotal, as Harris has not been front and center during the campaign. Her performance will shape her image as a potential future president and impact voter opinions.
• 🥺 The transparency surrounding Trump's COVID-19 diagnosis is under scrutiny, with questions arising about when he knew he had the virus. This could lead to concerns about the safety of future debates and impact the race.

Questions & Answers

Q: How did the Access Hollywood tapes in 2016 impact the Trump campaign?

The tapes initially seemed detrimental to Trump, leading to panic within the Republican party, but he managed to recover quickly, largely due to Hillary Clinton's unpopularity.

Q: Why is the mood of the electorate shifting from exhaustion to disgust?

The mishandling of the pandemic, lack of seriousness in addressing important issues, and erratic behavior, such as Trump's recent manic tweet storms, have contributed to a growing sense of disdain among voters.

Q: How are Republican senators and congressmen affected by their close association with Trump?

Many Republicans tied themselves tightly to Trump, making it difficult for them to distance themselves now. However, some may secretly vote for Biden while publicly supporting Trump, as seen in previous races.

Q: How does Joe Biden's recent Gettysburg speech showcase his approach to governing?

Biden's speech emphasized bipartisanship, unity, and a rejection of divisiveness, setting the tone for his potential presidency. It signifies his commitment to working across the aisle and not pursuing radical policies.

Summary & Key Takeaways

• Four years ago on October 7th, the Access Hollywood tapes were released, marking a pivotal moment in the 2016 election, while the Trump campaign now faces scandals, exhaustion, and a lack of political strategy.

• The Trump campaign is trying to rally around the idea of surviving tough times, but the mood of the electorate has shifted from exhaustion to disgust, leading to a potential collapse.

• Biden, on the other hand, remains steady in his campaign, delivering speeches that focus on unity, bipartisanship, and his ability to govern.