How to know when a RECESSION IS COMING!

TL;DR

Learn how to predict a recession by paying attention to signs such as weakness in businesses, rising unemployment rates, weak job reports, downward revision in job numbers, missed revenue numbers by public companies, weak guidance by companies, increased loan losses by banks, weak guidance by leisure companies, performance of logistics companies, and monthly auto sales numbers.

Transcript

there's many subscribers thank you so much for joining me today I am Jeremy this is the financial education Channel in today we're talking about how do you know whenever a session is coming I get you guys so often asking in that comment section how do you know when a recession is coming Jeremy if a recession was coming Jeremy how do we why are we s... Read More

Key Insights

• 🙈 Weakness seen in businesses and declining sales among friends and family can indicate a recession.
• 😮 Rising unemployment rates and weak job reports are significant indicators of an impending economic downturn.
• #️⃣ Downward revisions in job numbers and missed revenue numbers by public companies are warning signs.
• 🐢 Weak guidance by companies after quarterly reports can indicate a slowing economy.
• 🌸 Increased loan losses reported by banks indicate financial hardships for individuals.
• 🚱 Weak guidance by leisure companies suggests reduced consumer spending on non-essential activities.
• 🧑‍⚕️ Performance of logistics companies like FedEx and UPS can reflect overall economic health.

Questions & Answers

Q: How can weakness in businesses indicate a recession?

Weakness in businesses, such as slow sales and lower performance compared to previous periods, can be a sign of an economic downturn as it suggests a decline in consumer spending and overall economic health.

Q: Why is the unemployment rate important in predicting a recession?

A rising unemployment rate indicates that more individuals are losing their jobs, which can lead to reduced consumer spending and economic contraction. It serves as a significant economic indicator for a coming recession.

Q: What is the significance of weak job reports?

Weak job reports for consecutive months indicate that job growth is significantly below expectations and may point to a broader economic slowdown. This can be a crucial warning sign of an impending recession.

Q: How do missed revenue numbers by public companies relate to a recession?

When more than half of the public companies miss revenue numbers, it suggests a lack of consumer demand and economic weakness. Revenue numbers are a better indicator of the overall economy compared to net income, which can be manipulated.

Summary & Key Takeaways

• Weakness seen in businesses and consensus among friends and family about struggling sales are indicators of a possible recession.

• Rising unemployment rates and weak job reports for consecutive months suggest an economic downturn.

• Downward revisions in monthly job numbers and missed revenue numbers by public companies are warning signs.

• Weak guidance by companies, increased loan losses by banks, weak guidance by leisure companies, and declining monthly auto sales indicate an impending recession.