How Many Licks? | Aaron Santos | Talks at Google

TL;DR

Learn how to make accurate estimations for a wide range of topics using simple math and approximations.

Transcript

We're proud to have Aaron Santos here, the author of, "How Many Licks? Or How to Estimate Damn Near Anything.” So, Aaron is a local Ann Arbor resident. He's not only an author, but a physicist, and also an occasional actor and director. So he's currently out doing some research here at U of M. Just to give you a little bit more background about ... Read More

Key Insights

• 💄 Estimations and approximations are powerful tools for understanding complex problems and making informed decisions.
• 💨 The Fermi approximation method is a simple yet effective way to estimate quantities within an order of magnitude.
• 👨‍💼 Estimations can be useful in various fields such as healthcare, energy, and business forecasting.
• 🤔 Approximations help in developing critical thinking and reasoning skills and provide a good idea of the expected outcomes.
• 🦻 Estimations are not always precise but provide valuable insights and can aid in problem-solving and decision-making processes.
• 💦 Practicing estimations builds numerical intuition and the ability to conceptualize and work with large or small numbers.
• ❓ Some problems may be difficult to estimate due to limited data or complexity, but approximations can still provide useful insights and a rough estimate.

Questions & Answers

Q: How can estimations be useful in real-world scenarios like the health care debate or the energy crisis?

Estimations help in understanding and solving complex problems by breaking them down into simpler mathematical models. By approximating values and analyzing trends, estimations can inform public opinion and guide decision-making processes in areas such as health care policies or energy solutions.

Q: Are there any limitations to the approximations method?

Approximations are based on assumptions and simplifications, so the accuracy of the estimations depends on the accuracy of those assumptions. They may not provide precise answers but are useful for getting a rough idea or order of magnitude estimation.

Q: Can the estimation method be applied to other fields outside of physics and mathematics?

Absolutely! The estimation technique can be applied to any field that involves quantitative analysis or problem-solving. It helps in making informed decisions, forecasting trends, and understanding complex systems by breaking them down into manageable components.

Q: Can the estimation method be helpful in business forecasting?

Yes, estimations are valuable for business forecasting. By using available data, making assumptions, and approximating values, estimations can aid in understanding market trends, predicting customer behavior, and developing strategic plans for growth and expansion.

Summary & Key Takeaways

• Aaron Santos, author of "How Many Licks? Or How to Estimate Damn Near Anything," discusses the importance of math and approximations in critical thinking, reasoning, and decision-making.

• He explains the Fermi approximation method, popularized by physicist Enrico Fermi, which allows for quick and rough estimations of various quantities.

• Santos provides examples of using estimations to calculate the number of piano tuners in Chicago, the number of people having sex at any given moment, the amount of area needed for solar panels to power the United States, and the number of licks to reach the tootsie roll center of a tootsie pop.