Where Is The USD Going And The CFTC

TL;DR

The US dollar's future is uncertain, with conflicting views from technical analysts and economists, but factors such as growth rate convergence, interest rate differentials, trade talks, and geopolitical risks will impact its performance.

Transcript

so where's the usdollar going if you're a technical analyst and you look at charts you have perhaps this year being robbed of a key piece of data and I'm referring here to the Commodity Futures Trading Corporation CFTC data because of the government shutdown we only got data for the last week of 2018 a few days ago so we don't really know for sure ... Read More

Key Insights

• 🖤 Technical analysts lack sufficient data due to the government shutdown, hindering their ability to analyze the dollar's performance.
• ☠️ Economists and strategists have a bearish view on the dollar, expecting a decline based on growth rate convergence and other factors.
• ❓ The economic forecasts for the US seem solid, while the eurozone is grappling with economic challenges.
• ☠️ Factors such as interest rate differentials, trade talks, and geopolitical risks can impact the dollar's future performance.
• 🇨🇳 The ongoing US-China trade talks and the possibility of new tariffs on China can disproportionately impact the eurozone.
• 😀 The eurozone also faces geopolitical risks that can affect its economic stability.
• ☠️ The US government's budget deficit and unsustainable growth rates may impact the dollar's future.

Questions & Answers

Q: What impact did the government shutdown have on data availability for technical analysts?

The government shutdown limited the availability of Commodity Futures Trading Corporation (CFTC) data, making it difficult to assess the positioning of traders around the US dollar.

Q: What is the fundamental view of economists and strategists regarding the US dollar for 2019?

Economists and strategists have a bearish view on the dollar, expecting a decline based on the assumption of growth rate convergence between the US and other major economies, particularly the eurozone.

Q: How have economic forecasts for the US and eurozone been in recent times?

Economic forecasts for the US indicate solid growth, around 2.5%, while the eurozone has seen stagnation in France, talks of Germany entering a technical recession, and Italy being in a recession. These challenges may impact the dollar's performance.

Q: What are the factors contributing to the bearish view on the dollar?

Factors contributing to the bearish view on the dollar include the assumption of growth rate convergence, declining interest rate differentials between the US and the eurozone, unsustainable US growth, and the possibility of new trade tariffs on China impacting the eurozone.

Summary & Key Takeaways

• Technical analysts lack sufficient data due to the recent US government shutdown, making it difficult to determine the positioning of traders around the US dollar.

• Economists and strategists have a bearish view on the dollar for 2019, expecting a decline based on the convergence of growth rates between the US and other major economies.

• The economic forecasts for the US appear solid, while the eurozone is experiencing challenges, potentially favoring the dollar's performance.