Brexit: Make or Break (Rupert Harrison, Helen Thomas, Oliver Harvey) | The Exchange | Real Vision™

TL;DR

Volatility can be expected in November and December over the parliamentary vote, but a deal is likely to be reached between the UK and the EU before the end of the year.

Transcript

and there will probably be a moment to midnight where the market has in the negotiations where the market has to be pricing some reasonably high probability of a No Deal out coming I think as more of the probability distribution is on higher interest rates that's certainly my view on it there will be a lot of volatility in November and December ove... Read More

Key Insights

• 👍 The parliamentary vote will be the most important date, determining whether a deal is approved or rejected.
• ❤️‍🩹 Market volatility is expected due to uncertainty, but a deal is likely before the end of the year.
• 🤩 The key people to watch are politicians such as Boris Johnson, David Davis, and Jacob Rees-Mogg, who can sway the outcome of the negotiations.
• ❓ The major issues revolve around the backstop and the future relationship between the UK and EU.
• 🤝 While a no-deal Brexit is not the most likely outcome, it is important to consider the potential impact on UK assets and the economy.
• 🦔 Sterling is likely to experience volatility, and hedge funds may take advantage of short-term trading opportunities.
• 🤝 The market may price in a higher probability of a no-deal Brexit, but ultimately a deal is expected to be reached.

Questions & Answers

Q: What are the key dates to watch in the Brexit negotiations?

The parliamentary vote is crucial, expected to happen in late November or early December. The EU summit on November 17 is also significant, as is Brexit day on March 29, 2019.

Q: Who are the key people involved in the Brexit negotiations?

Boris Johnson, David Davis, and Jacob Rees-Mogg are key figures representing the pro-Brexit side. Their stance and actions can greatly impact the negotiations.

Q: What are the major issues at stake in the Brexit negotiations?

The backstop, which pertains to the border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland, is a significant issue. The future relationship between the UK and EU in terms of trade and regulations is also crucial.

Q: Is a no-deal Brexit a possibility?

While it cannot be ruled out, a no-deal Brexit is not considered the most likely outcome. The political system is unlikely to allow such a scenario, and a deal between the UK and EU is expected to be reached.

Summary & Key Takeaways

• Key dates include the parliamentary vote in late November or early December, the EU summit on November 17, and Brexit day on March 29, 2019.

• The key people to watch are Boris Johnson, David Davis, and Jacob Rees-Mogg, who are prominent figures in the Brexit negotiations.

• The major issues pertain to the backstop, which involves the possibility of a hard border in Northern Ireland, and the future relationship between the UK and EU.