How the war in Ukraine will end | Serhii Plokhy and Lex Fridman

TL;DR

The war in Ukraine can potentially end with the victory of one side, the victory of another side, or a stalemate and compromise. However, a return to the borders of 2022 is highly unlikely due to constitutional constraints in Russia.

Transcript

so what are the ways this work can end do you think what are the different possible trajectories whether it's peace talks what does winning look like VI the side what is the role of us what what trajectories do you see that are possible it's it's a question on the one level very easy to answer on the other very difficult the level on which it is ve... Read More

Key Insights

• ✌️ The war in Ukraine can end with victory for one side, victory for the other side, or a compromise and stalemate.
• ↩️ Returning to the borders of 2022 is highly unlikely without political change in Moscow due to constitutional constraints.
• 🌍 The largest war in Europe since World War II and the world's largest war since the Korean War, the outcome is uncertain, but peace talks have not shown significant progress.
• 🫥 The Ukrainian victory on the Black Sea was a major change, but the front lines have seen little movement overall.

Questions & Answers

Q: What are the possible trajectories for the end of the war in Ukraine?

The war can potentially end with the victory of one side, the victory of the other side, or a stalemate and compromise regarding territories. The outcome depends on various factors and political changes.

Q: Why is it impossible to return to the borders of 2022 without political change in Moscow?

Russian President Vladimir Putin included Ukrainian regions into the Russian Constitution, making it legally binding for him and future successors. Negotiating a return to the borders of 2022 would require a change in the Russian Constitution, which is highly unlikely without political change in Moscow.

Q: Is there a possibility of overriding the Russian Constitution through a new agreement similar to the Minsk agreements?

Technically, it is possible to override the Constitution through a new agreement, but it would require significant political change in Moscow. The President of Russia holds substantial power over the legislative branch, making it difficult to imagine such a scenario without political change.

Q: Is there a chance for the war to end this year through compromise and ceasefire?

The war ending through compromise and returning to the borders of 2022 is unlikely without a significant defeat for the Russian army or a change in the Western military support for Ukraine. This year is expected to witness further attempts to gain military advantage rather than compromise.

Summary & Key Takeaways

• The war in Ukraine can end in three scenarios: victory for one side, victory for the other side, or a stalemate and compromise regarding territories.

• Peace talks have not shown promising results so far, as both sides believe they can improve their positions on the battlefield.

• The largest war in Europe since World War II and the largest war in the world since the Korean War, it is uncertain how the war will end, but all three scenarios are still possible.