20th century was impossible to predict | Michael Malice and Lex Fridman

TL;DR

No one could have predicted the unexpected events and outcomes in the 20th century, such as Lenin's rise to power and the Great Depression lasting longer than anticipated.

Transcript

do you think it would be possible if you were an intellectual uh like you are at the beginning of the 20th century would you be able to predict the rest of the 20th century no I I don't think at all I think there were so many um out of nowhere turns that no one would have seen their them coming for and as an example um Lenin seizing power and makin... Read More

Key Insights

• ✊ The unpredictability of historical events stems from the ability of individuals like Lenin to seize and maintain power.
• 😮 The success of the October Revolution in Russia surprised many, both domestically and globally.
• 🇺🇸 The Great Depression's duration was influenced by policies implemented by FDR, which extended its impact in the United States.
• 🧑‍🏭 Various factors, such as Germany's re-militarization and the Treaty of Versailles, contributed to the outbreak of World War II.

Questions & Answers

Q: Is it possible to predict the rest of the 20th century if you were an intellectual in the early 1900s?

No, the numerous unexpected events, such as Lenin's rise to power and remaking of society, make it impossible to accurately predict the future of the 20th century.

Q: What aspect of Lenin's rise to power was difficult to predict?

The fact that a singular figure with some ideas could gain tremendous power, maintain it, and drastically transform society so quickly, despite facing significant opposition, was difficult to predict.

Q: How did Ludendorff's plan regarding Lenin backfire?

Ludendorff's plan to weaken Russia by sending Lenin to cause problems instead led to the successful October Revolution, surprising everyone including anarchists and Communists worldwide.

Q: Why did the USA take a long time to recognize the legitimacy of the Soviet Union?

The USA initially did not recognize the Soviet Union's legitimacy, leading to a lack of diplomatic relations. It took time for them to accept that Lenin and Stalin's government were the valid authorities governing Russia.

Summary & Key Takeaways

• The unexpected turns in history, like Lenin seizing power and remaking society, were impossible to predict.

• German General Ludendorff's plan to weaken Russia by sending Lenin backfired, as the October Revolution succeeded.

• The USA took a long time to recognize the legitimacy of the Soviet Union, highlighting the unpredictable nature of the events.

• The Great Depression lasted longer than expected due to FDR's policies, which were not initially anticipated.