Understanding Brexit - Update on 2/7/19

TL;DR

Brexit negotiations and May's approach to the deal are showing signs of moving away from party bickering and focusing on pragmatic solutions, while the UK's economic data remains positive despite Brexit uncertainties.

Transcript

hi I'm Craig Drake co-founder and director Laborde management in this segment we're looking at brexit and may comes to Briggs I think it's important to separate the political and the economic factors into two separate arguments on the political side the view held by many now is that is that we will arrive at a deal before the article 50 deadline on... Read More

Key Insights

• 🥳 May's approach to Brexit negotiations has shifted towards a pragmatic focus on finding the best deal for the UK rather than engaging in party politics.
• 😘 The UK's economic data, including low unemployment and rising wages, indicates a robust economy despite Brexit uncertainties.
• 🌐 When analyzing Brexit, it is important to consider the global macro picture, including risks arising from a global slowdown and political issues in other countries.
• 🤪 The focus should not solely be on politics but on the economics going forward to assess the impact of Brexit.
• 🎁 Brexit presents uncertainties that could impact trade, investment, and economic growth in the UK.
• 🤛 The UK's current economic strength should not be neglected, as it is leaving a eurozone facing challenges such as a possible German recession and political problems in France and Italy.
• 🙃 Sterling could potentially see significant upside as political aspects of Brexit are resolved.

Questions & Answers

Q: How has May's approach to Brexit negotiations changed recently?

May's approach has shifted towards a more pragmatic stance, focusing on finding the best deal for the UK's exit from the EU, rather than engaging in party bickering with opposition leader Jeremy Corbyn.

Q: What positive economic data has the UK seen despite Brexit uncertainties?

The UK has witnessed low unemployment numbers, reaching their lowest level in 43 years, and an increase in wages, with the highest upside since the 2008 financial crisis.

Q: Should the focus solely be on Brexit, or are there other factors to consider?

It is important to consider the global macro picture, including a potential global slowdown and weak demand from China. Additionally, the UK is leaving a eurozone with its own economic and political challenges.

Q: What potential risks does Brexit pose for the UK's economy?

While the UK's economic data remains positive, Brexit introduces uncertainties that could impact trade, investment, and economic growth. The outcome of the negotiations will determine the extent of these risks.

Summary & Key Takeaways

• Separating the political and economic factors in Brexit, it is observed that May's approach to the deal has shifted towards pragmatic solutions instead of party bickering.

• Despite the doom and gloom surrounding Brexit, the UK has been producing robust economic data, with low unemployment and rising wages.

• When analyzing Brexit, it is important to consider the global macro picture and the risks posed by a global slowdown and political issues in other countries.