Deflation & Insolvency Risks: Gold & Bonds' Moment to Shine (w/ Steven Van Metre and Travis Kimmel)

TL;DR

Travis Kimmel, President of Real Vision, discusses his background, macro framework, market conditions, and why he is bullish on bonds.

Transcript

STEVEN VAN METRE: Hi, I'm Steve Van Metre, Macro  Fund Manager and inventor of Portfolio Shield,   and I'm here today with the President  of Real Vision Travis Kimmel.   Travis, thanks for joining me today. TRAVIS KIMMEL: Great to be here, Steve.  STEVEN VAN METRE: So Travis and I, we  talk about macro pretty much every day.   And Travis has a deep... Read More

Key Insights

• ❓ Travis Kimmel joined Real Vision as President after using the platform as a subscriber.
• ❓ His macro framework incorporates various viewpoints to create his own perspective on economics.
• 🥺 Travis predicts an insolvency event and deflationary pressures due to the economic downturn, leading to potential entrepreneurship and a focus on basic needs.

Questions & Answers

Q: How did Travis Kimmel become the President of Real Vision?

Travis reached out to Raoul Pal, the founder of Real Vision, as a subscriber and fan of the platform. After collaborating on ideas for software features, Raoul offered Travis the opportunity to become the President.

Q: What is Travis Kimmel's macro framework?

Travis takes a contrarian approach and considers a variety of macro viewpoints from different thinkers. He builds his own view by synthesizing the most solid components of different macro frameworks, including liquidity events and phase insolvency.

Q: What are Travis Kimmel's insights on the potential insolvency event?

Travis believes that the insolvency event caused by the economic downturn will lead to a supply and demand imbalance, putting pressure on the dollar. He expects people to struggle to service their debts, resulting in a wave of entrepreneurship and a focus on basic needs, leading to deflationary pressures.

Q: Why is Travis Kimmel bullish on bonds?

Travis sees bonds as a way to ensure capital during periods of economic downturn and cheap asset prices. He values the riskless nature of bonds and believes that they have limited downside compared to other assets. He expects bonds to rally during an insolvency event.

Summary & Key Takeaways

• Travis Kimmel shares his background in software development and how he became the President of Real Vision.

• He discusses his macro framework, leaning towards the deflationary side, and the potential insolvency event before inflation.

• Travis highlights the importance of the US dollar, the potential for a devaluation, and its impact on global markets.

• He explains why he is bullish on bonds, emphasizing their riskless nature and the potential for price appreciation during an insolvency event.