The brief history of artificial intelligence: The world has changed fast – what might be next? Just 10 years ago, no machine could reliably provide language or image recognition at a human level. But, as the chart shows, AI systems have become steadily more capable and are now beating humans in tests in all these domains.

The brief history of artificial intelligence: The world has changed fast – what might be next? Just 10 years ago, no machine could reliably provide language or image recognition at a human level. But, as the chart shows, AI systems have become steadily more capable and are now beating humans in tests in all these domains.

Training computation is measured in floating point operations, or FLOP for short. One FLOP is equivalent to one addition, subtraction, multiplication, or division of two decimal numbers. All AI systems that rely on machine learning need to be trained, and in these systems training computation is one of the three fundamental factors that are driving the capabilities of the system. The other two factors are the algorithms and the input data used for the training.

For the first six decades, training computation increased in line with Moore’s Law, doubling roughly every 20 months. Since about 2010 this exponential growth has sped up further, to a doubling time of just about 6 months. In her latest update, Cotra estimated a 50% probability that such “transformative AI” will be developed by the year 2040, less than two decades from now. Many AI experts believe that there is a real chance that human-level artificial intelligence will be developed within the next decades, and some believe that it will exist much sooner.

Now, let's shift our focus to the concept of "Better Than Free". The internet is a copy machine. At its most foundational level, it copies every action, every character, every thought we make while we ride upon it. Every bit of data ever produced on any computer is copied somewhere. The digital economy is thus run on a river of copies. Unlike the mass-produced reproductions of the machine age, these copies are not just cheap, they are free. This super-distribution system has become the foundation of our economy and wealth.

The instant reduplication of data, ideas, and media underpins all the major economic sectors in our economy, particularly those involved with exports — that is, those industries where the US has a competitive advantage. When copies are free, you need to sell things which cannot be copied. Consider "trust." Trust cannot be copied. You can't purchase it. Trust must be earned, over time. It cannot be downloaded. Or faked. Or counterfeited (at least for long).

So, why would we ever pay for anything that we could get for free? The answer lies in the value proposition. Getting a copy delivered to your inbox the moment it is released — or even better, produced — by its creators is a generative asset. Aspirin is free, but aspirin tailored to your DNA is very expensive. Personalization requires an ongoing conversation between the creator and consumer, artist and fan, producer and user. The copy of your sequence will be free, but the interpretation of what it means, what you can do about it, and how to use it — the manual for your genes so to speak — will be expensive. Even if you don't need a manual, you might like to be sure it is bug-free, reliable, and warranted. You'll pay for authenticity.

Ownership often sucks. You have to keep your things tidy, up-to-date, and in the case of digital material, backed up. But nothing gets embodied as much as music in a live performance, with real bodies. The music is free; the bodily performance expensive. This formula is quickly becoming a common one for not only musicians but even authors. The book is free; the bodily talk is expensive. Fans like to reward artists, musicians, authors, and the like with the tokens of their appreciation because it allows them to connect.

No matter what its price, a work has no value unless it is seen; unfound masterpieces are worthless. When there are millions of books, songs, films, applications, everything requesting our attention — and most of it free — being found is valuable. Since findability can really only happen at the systems level, creators need aggregators. This is why publishers, studios, and labels (PSL) will never disappear. They are not needed for the distribution of the copies (the internet machine does that). Rather, the PSL are needed for the distribution of the users' attention back to the works. From an ocean of possibilities, the PSL find, nurture, and refine the work of creators that they believe fans will connect with. There is little doubt that besides the mega-aggregators, in the world of the free, many PDLs will make money selling findability.

Success in the free-copy world is not derived from the skills of distribution since the Great Copy Machine in the Sky takes care of that. Nor are legal skills surrounding Intellectual Property and Copyright very useful anymore. Nor are the skills of hoarding and scarcity. The money in this networked economy does not follow the path of the copies. Rather, it follows the path of attention, and attention has its own circuits. Ads are widely regarded as the solution, almost the ONLY solution, to the paradox of the free. Most of the suggested solutions for overcoming the free involve some measure of advertising.

In conclusion, the history of artificial intelligence has shown remarkable progress, with AI systems now surpassing humans in various domains. The exponential growth of training computation, algorithms, and input data has contributed to this advancement. On the other hand, the concept of "Better Than Free" highlights the value of non-replicable assets such as trust, personalization, authenticity, and findability in a world where copies are abundant and free. To navigate this landscape, here are three actionable advice:

• 1. Focus on building trust and establishing genuine connections with your audience. This cannot be replicated or purchased, and it will set you apart from the noise of free copies.

• 2. Embrace personalization and ongoing conversations with your consumers. Tailor your offerings to their unique needs and preferences, providing value that cannot be obtained from free copies.

• 3. Invest in findability. In a world where attention is scarce, work with aggregators and platforms that can help amplify your message and connect you with the right audience. Remember that being found is valuable, and it can lead to meaningful engagement and financial success.

By understanding the history of AI and embracing the principles of "Better Than Free," individuals and businesses can navigate the evolving landscape of technology and create value in a world of abundance.