Extrapolations and Crowdfunded Research (Experiment) | Two Minute Papers #44 | Summary and Q&A

TL;DR

Extrapolation is the act of predicting future trends based on past data, but it is important to consider whether the growth is linear or non-linear.

Key Insights

• 🍝 Extrapolation is a method used to predict future trends based on past data.
• ☠️ Linear extrapolation assumes constant growth rate, while superlinear and sublinear extrapolation consider varying growth rates.
• 👨‍🔬 Crowdfunding research platforms, such as Experiment, have seen significant growth in raising funds for open research projects.
• 😥 The number of data points available for extrapolation affects the accuracy of predictions.

Transcript

Dear Fellow Scholars, this is Two Minute Papers with Károly Zsolnai-Fehér. What is extrapolation? We hear the term a lot, so let's try to learn what's behind it. Despite the complicated definitions that are out there, extrapolation basically means continuing lines. A good example is when we have data for something from the last few days or years, a... Read More

Questions & Answers

Q: What is extrapolation and why is it important?

Extrapolation is the process of predicting future trends based on existing data. It is important because it allows us to make informed decisions and forecasts by extending patterns into the future.

Q: How does linear extrapolation work?

Linear extrapolation assumes that growth follows a straight line. By connecting existing data points with a line, we can estimate the value for a future point. However, this method assumes that the growth rate remains constant, which may not always be accurate.

Q: What is the difference between superlinear and sublinear extrapolation?

Superlinear extrapolation suggests a growth rate that is accelerating in time, while sublinear extrapolation indicates that growth slows down over time. Superlinear extrapolation predicts higher values compared to linear extrapolation, while sublinear extrapolation estimates lower values.

Q: Why is it important to consider the nature of growth when extrapolating?

It is crucial to consider the nature of growth because many phenomena are inherently non-linear. Assuming linear growth when it is actually non-linear can lead to inaccurate predictions and misleading results.

Summary & Key Takeaways

• Extrapolation involves continuing a trend or line based on existing data to make predictions for the future.

• Crowdfunding research platform Experiment has experienced consistent and impressive growth since its founding in 2012, raising millions of dollars for open research.

• Linear extrapolation suggests Experiment could raise around $4.2 million in 2016, while superlinear extrapolation predicts $7.4 million, and sublinear extrapolation estimates $3.1 million.