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Paulo Grahl

Paulo Grahl

@pgg

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not an economist

rj

Joined Jan 6, 2023

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fomc 13
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fiscal 6
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harker(philly) 2
mester(cleveland) 2
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williams(nyfed) 1
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papers 1
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Posts

The Fiscal Impact of the Harris and Trump Campaign Plans | Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget

www.crfb.org/papers/fiscal-impact-harris-and-trump-campaign-plans

Nov 15, 2024

2

CBO Releases June 2024 Baseline Update | Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget

www.crfb.org/blogs/cbo-releases-june-2024-baseline-update

Nov 15, 2024

3

$700 Billion of Easy Deficit Reduction | Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget

www.crfb.org/blogs/700-billion-easy-deficit-reduction

Nov 15, 2024

3

CRFB Statement on Department of Government Efficiency | Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget

www.crfb.org/press-releases/crfb-statement-department-government-efficiency

fiscal

Nov 15, 2024

2

A Primer on the Budget Reconciliation Process | Insights | Mayer Brown

www.mayerbrown.com/en/insights/publications/2024/10/a-primer-on-the-budget-reconciliation-process

Nov 15, 2024

6

Speech by Chair Powell on the economic outlook

www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/powell20241114a.htm

Nov 14, 2024

1

Matt Gaetz resigns from Congress after being picked for attorney general

abcnews.go.com/Politics/trump-picks-rep-matt-gaetz-attorney-general/story?id=115835796

Nov 14, 2024

4

Trump’s Rubio pick divides Republicans

thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4989259-rubio-trump-secretary-of-state-pick/?email=2a730038010d054220c4d2badafac85037aa9470&emaila=bcd895d165fe57eb91063dc6a88088e8&emailb=8087074bf9d589004abbf6bd45539b5441f4ebb05dcaf048db3ada302ad0a68f&utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=11.14.24%20RS%20-%20News%20Alert%20-%20Trump/Rubio

Nov 14, 2024

1

Signum Global Advisors

go.signumglobal.com/webmail/810483/910895856/f20f31a3cef9d093eb3dbe10812b4ea82a0d569a01f2ae7428567f6cd10fe1ce

Nov 14, 2024

3

Signum Global Advisors

go.signumglobal.com/webmail/810483/866724976/fdf227871dcebbcdeeed7bdec2f4ac143a60ae467b5abe3aeae43d014eac14aa

Nov 14, 2024

1

SIGNUM: Trump's Ukraine peace plan

go.signumglobal.com/webmail/810483/912378175/f20f31a3cef9d093eb3dbe10812b4ea82a0d569a01f2ae7428567f6cd10fe1ce

Nov 14, 2024

Navigating in shallow waters: Monetary policy strategy in a better-balanced economy

www.dallasfed.org/news/speeches/logan/2024/lkl241113

Nov 13, 2024

22

Trump’s Tax and Tariff Ideas: Details & Analysis

taxfoundation.org/research/all/federal/donald-trump-tax-plan-2024/

Nov 11, 2024

11

Here are the GOP’s top legislative priorities under Trump

thehill.com/homenews/house/4981773-republican-agenda-trump-congress/?email=2a730038010d054220c4d2badafac85037aa9470&emaila=bcd895d165fe57eb91063dc6a88088e8&emailb=8087074bf9d589004abbf6bd45539b5441f4ebb05dcaf048db3ada302ad0a68f&utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=11.11.24%20News%20Alert%20GOP-RNS

Nov 11, 2024

1

Republicans’ First Tax-Cut Challenge: How Much Red Ink Can They Live With?

www.wsj.com/politics/republican-tax-cuts-congress-7b0eb428?mod=djemCapitalJournalDaybreak

Nov 11, 2024

6

Trump has big plans for ‘day one’ on immigration, energy and more

thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4977054-trump-day-one-agenda/?email=2a730038010d054220c4d2badafac85037aa9470&emaila=bcd895d165fe57eb91063dc6a88088e8&emailb=8087074bf9d589004abbf6bd45539b5441f4ebb05dcaf048db3ada302ad0a68f&utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=11.06.24%20CS%20trump%20plans%2C%20Nov%206%2C%202024%2C%206:28:10%20PM

trump

Nov 7, 2024

15

Tariff Tracker: Tracking the Economic Impact of Tariffs

taxfoundation.org/research/all/federal/trump-tariffs-biden-tariffs/

Nov 4, 2024

4

NVIDIA Computer Finds Largest Known Prime, Blows Past Record by 16 Million Digits

gizmodo.com/nvidia-computer-finds-largest-known-prime-blows-past-record-by-16-million-digits-2000514948?utm_source=tldrnewsletter

Oct 23, 2024

1

Speech by Governor Waller on the economic outlook

www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/waller20241014a.htm

Oct 14, 2024

542

» What to Expect from Early Voting in the 2024 General Election UF Election Lab

election.lab.ufl.edu/what-to-expect-from-early-voting-in-the-2024-general-election/

Oct 10, 2024

17

FOMC Minutes, September 17-18, 2024

www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcminutes20240918.htm

Oct 9, 2024

26

A New Indicator of Labor Market Tightness for Predicting Wage Inflation - Liberty Street Economics

libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2024/10/a-new-indicator-of-labor-market-tightness-for-predicting-wage-inflation/

Oct 9, 2024

7

U.S. Equities Market Attributes September 2024 - Commentary | S&P Dow Jones Indices

www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/commentary/article/us-equities-market-attributes/?utm_source=marketo&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=email_campaign&utm_content=monthly_email_ma_us_equities_2409&mkt_tok=ODM4LUxEUC00ODMAAAGV8Zm3ocxo-Wwad2Fc1DqprQwQ9pW6BGPKZ-hKwtGIkgXjyFMqQTSJAPITrJ1iUY7luL2pIWoSUL9Dz8IqS-AAhvcM9Bxq7TdgHEzOR2OUBvAc

Oct 7, 2024

1

3.3 Partitioning the Variation | A Very Short Course on Time Series Analysis

bookdown.org/rdpeng/timeseriesbook/partitioning-the-variation.html

Oct 2, 2024

1

3.1 The Nyquist Frequency | A Very Short Course on Time Series Analysis

bookdown.org/rdpeng/timeseriesbook/the-nyquist-frequency.html

Oct 2, 2024

2

Speech by Chair Powell on the economic outlook

www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/powell20240930a.htm

Sep 30, 2024

8

Calculation of Average Mutual Information (AMI) and False-Nearest Neighbors (FNN) for the Estimation of Embedding Parameters of Multidimensional Time Series in Matlab

www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6139437/

Sep 25, 2024

4

Surveys of Consumers

www.sca.isr.umich.edu/

Sep 13, 2024

9

Destroying De Minimis - AAF

www.americanactionforum.org/research/destroying-de-minimis/

Sep 13, 2024

11

De Minimis: A Vital Tax Exemption - National Foreign Trade Council

www.nftc.org/de-minimis-a-vital-tax-exemption/

Sep 13, 2024

2

De minimis: Helping or hurting U.S. manufacturers?

www.supplychaindive.com/news/de-minimis-exemption-legislation-divides-manufacturing-sector/726343/

Sep 13, 2024

3

The Time Has Come to Address the De Minimis Loophole - Vermont Law Review

lawreview.vermontlaw.edu/the-time-has-come-to-address-the-de-minimis-loophole/

Sep 13, 2024

2

Biden targets Shein, Temu with new rules to curb alleged 'abuse' of U.S. trade loophole

www.cnbc.com/2024/09/13/de-minimis-shein-temu-biden-china-rules.html

Sep 13, 2024

1

Speech by Chair Powell on the economic outlook

www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/powell20240823a.htm

Sep 8, 2024

24

Speech by Governor Waller on the economic outlook

www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/waller20240906a.htm

Sep 6, 2024

432

‘E’ Is for Equipoise - FEDERAL RESERVE BANK of NEW YORK

www.newyorkfed.org/newsevents/speeches/2024/wil240906

Sep 6, 2024

12

August

www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/services/august/

Sep 5, 2024

17

National Summary

www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/beigebook202408-summary.htm

Sep 4, 2024

15

August

www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/pmi/august/

Sep 4, 2024

13

Cannot enter a Dividend Reinvestment - Help - KDE Discuss

discuss.kde.org/t/cannot-enter-a-dividend-reinvestment/1848/4

Sep 1, 2024

1

Cannot enter a Dividend Reinvestment - Help - KDE Discuss

discuss.kde.org/t/cannot-enter-a-dividend-reinvestment/1848/3

Sep 1, 2024

1

Will Interest Rates Remain Elevated Even as Monetary Policy Normalizes?

www.richmondfed.org/publications/research/economic_brief/2024/eb_24-28?utm_source=Federal+Reserve+Bank+of+Richmond&utm_campaign=62ba550cec-RSS_EMAIL_EB&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f56b5f06b6-62ba550cec-71964197

Aug 28, 2024

3

A Primer: The TCJA and S Corporations - AAF

www.americanactionforum.org/research/a-primer-the-tcja-and-s-corporations/?utm_source=American+Action+Forum+Emails&utm_campaign=64929c57c1-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2020_11_19_05_40_COPY_01&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_64783a8335-64929c57c1-267120177

Aug 26, 2024

9

The FOMC meeting minutes: An update of counting words

www.federalreserve.gov/econres/notes/feds-notes/the-fomc-meeting-minutes-an-update-of-counting-words-20170803.html

Aug 21, 2024

1010

FOMC Minutes, July 30-31, 2024

www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcminutes20240731.htm

Aug 21, 2024

171

Recent Trends in Banks’ Commercial Real Estate Exposure

www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2024/jul/trends-banks-commercial-real-estate-exposure?utm_source=Federal+Reserve+Bank+of+St.+Louis+Publications&utm_campaign=6ef41eb1ac-BlogAlert&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_c572dedae2-6ef41eb1ac-57428857

Jul 11, 2024

1

How Do Demographics Influence r*?

www.richmondfed.org/publications/research/economic_brief/2024/eb_24-18?utm_source=Federal+Reserve+Bank+of+Richmond&utm_campaign=f1a3123db6-RSS_EMAIL_EB&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f56b5f06b6-f1a3123db6-71964197

usa
papers

Jul 8, 2024

7

Part 2: Monetary Policy

www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/2024-07-mpr-part2.htm

Jul 8, 2024

4

Tax Expenditures

home.treasury.gov/policy-issues/tax-policy/tax-expenditures

usa
fiscal

Jul 5, 2024

1

CBO Explains How It Develops the Budget Baseline - 58916.pdf

www.cbo.gov/system/files/2023-04/58916.pdf

usa
fiscal

Jul 5, 2024

1

CBO Explains How It Develops the Budget Baseline

www.cbo.gov/publication/58916

usa
fiscal

Jul 5, 2024

1

Adding Debt-Service Effects to CBO’s Cost Estimates - 60277-debt-service.pdf

www.cbo.gov/system/files/2024-06/60277-debt-service.pdf

usa
fiscal

Jul 5, 2024

1

4. The model file — Dynare 6.1 documentation

www.dynare.org/manual/the-model-file.html

Jul 4, 2024

1

FOMC Minutes, June 11-12, 2024

www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcminutes20240612.htm

Jul 3, 2024

45

June

www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/services/june/

Jul 3, 2024

6

Tealbook A, December 2018 - FOMC20181219tealbooka20181207.pdf

www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/FOMC20181219tealbooka20181207.pdf

Jul 2, 2024

1

Beyond the Mean: Exploring Tail Risks in Inflation Expectations

www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2024/jul/exploring-tail-risks-inflation-expectations?utm_source=Federal+Reserve+Bank+of+St.+Louis+Publications&utm_campaign=d81c841373-BlogAlert&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_c572dedae2-d81c841373-57428857

Jul 2, 2024

1

Biden Campaign Will Try to Reassure Big Donors

ground.news/article/biden-campaign-will-try-to-reassure-big-donors_ca0fc2

Jul 2, 2024

1

Exploring the TIPS-Treasury Valuation Puzzle - Liberty Street Economics

libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2024/07/exploring-the-tips-treasury-valuation-puzzle/

Jul 1, 2024

1

June

www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/pmi/june/

Jul 1, 2024

14

Speech by Governor Cook on the economic outlook

www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/cook20240625a.htm

lisa-cook

Jun 25, 2024

212

Getting It Right: Meeting Uncertainty with Conditionality - San Francisco Fed

www.frbsf.org/news-and-media/speeches/mary-c-daly/2024/06/getting-it-right-meeting-uncertainty-with-conditionality/?utm_source=mailchimp&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=presidents-speech

mary-daly

Jun 25, 2024

4

Speech by Governor Bowman on perspectives on U.S. monetary policy and bank capital reform

www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/bowman20240625a.htm

Jun 25, 2024

15

FICC Research

live.barcap.com/PRC/servlets/dv.search?docviewID=66734949fa53a6743d20cb47&sourceClick=FC_lb_1717985090300&sourceArea=EMAIL_FULL_REPORT&deviceID=lb_1717985090300&BEGINNING=YES

Jun 21, 2024

3

spf-documentation.pdf

www.philadelphiafed.org/-/media/frbp/assets/surveys-and-data/survey-of-professional-forecasters/spf-documentation.pdf?la=en&hash=F2D73A2CE0C3EA90E71A363719588D25

Jun 18, 2024

3

Yield Advantage

www.pimco.com/en-us/insights/economic-and-market-commentary/secular-outlook/yield-advantage/?mkt_tok=ODc5LUFFTC0xNTgAAAGToalrQVWvgTbOSyv-PWgFbVfHH1Tn5EuzXNMMGohxHOZNEQi1JK3GcUE0xA9y6pkEpwj-nO_sXHaKyVzo0xtJR9J44hz4IRVVjUM-kVx7ejkfcg&

Jun 10, 2024

11

Weekly Market Pulse: Is The Economy Weaker Than It Appears?

alhambrapartners.com/2024/06/10/weekly-market-pulse-is-the-economy-weaker-than-it-appears/?src=news

Jun 10, 2024

3

rc23783.pdf

dominoweb.draco.res.ibm.com/reports/rc23783.pdf

Jun 5, 2024

1

May

www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/services/may/

Jun 5, 2024

13

786cea6879314ee590f01e3b84ca8051

www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/786cea6879314ee590f01e3b84ca8051

Jun 5, 2024

2

Despite High Inflation, Longer-Term Inflation Expectations Remain Well Anchored

www.kansascityfed.org/research/economic-bulletin/despite-high-inflation-longer-term-inflation-expectations-remain-well-anchored/

Jun 3, 2024

6

May

www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/pmi/may/

Jun 3, 2024

31

Commercial Real Estate in Focus

www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2024/may/commercial-real-estate-in-focus?utm_source=Federal+Reserve+Bank+of+St.+Louis+Publications&utm_campaign=ab70674d3d-BlogAlert&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_c572dedae2-ab70674d3d-57428857

May 31, 2024

13

FDIC Quarterly Banking Profile First Quarter 2024 | FDIC

www.fdic.gov/news/speeches/fdic-quarterly-banking-profile-first-quarter-2024

May 31, 2024

7

US Consumer Confidence

www.conference-board.org/topics/consumer-confidence

May 30, 2024

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/beigebook202405-st-louis.htm

May 29, 2024

11

Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/beigebook202405-richmond.htm

May 29, 2024

10

Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland

www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/beigebook202405-cleveland.htm

May 29, 2024

16

Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco

www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/beigebook202405-san-francisco.htm

May 29, 2024

4

Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/beigebook202405-dallas.htm

May 29, 2024

7

Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City

www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/beigebook202405-kansas-city.htm

May 29, 2024

5

Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis

www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/beigebook202405-minneapolis.htm

May 29, 2024

5

Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago

www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/beigebook202405-chicago.htm

May 29, 2024

9

Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta

www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/beigebook202405-atlanta.htm

May 29, 2024

9

Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia

www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/beigebook202405-philadelphia.htm

May 29, 2024

5

Federal Reserve Bank of New York

www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/beigebook202405-new-york.htm

May 29, 2024

8

Federal Reserve Bank of Boston

www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/beigebook202405-boston.htm

May 29, 2024

5

National Summary

www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/beigebook202405-summary.htm

May 29, 2024

25

Speech by Governor Waller on some thoughts on r*

www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/waller20240524a.htm

May 24, 2024

40

FOMC Minutes, April 30-May 1, 2024

www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcminutes20240501.htm

May 22, 2024

63

Speech by Vice Chair Jefferson on the U.S. economic outlook and housing price dynamics

www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/jefferson20240520a.htm

May 21, 2024

15

Speech by Governor Waller on the economic outlook

www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/waller20240521a.htm

May 21, 2024

40

IRS Employee Retention Credit compliance effort tops $1 billion threshold since fall; Voluntary Disclosure Program suspended after March 22, special withdrawal program remains open as audits, investigations intensify | Internal Revenue Service

www.irs.gov/newsroom/irs-employee-retention-credit-compliance-effort-tops-1-billion-threshold-since-fall-voluntary-disclosure-program-suspended-after-march-22-special-withdrawal-program-remains-open-as-audits

May 20, 2024

3

Employee Retention Credit (ERC): Overview & FAQs

tax.thomsonreuters.com/en/glossary/employee-retention-credit

May 20, 2024

1

Delinquency Is Increasingly in the Cards for Maxed-Out Borrowers - Liberty Street Economics

libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2024/05/delinquency-is-increasingly-in-the-cards-for-maxed-out-borrowers/

May 14, 2024

1

Are Markups Driving the Ups and Downs of Inflation? - San Francisco Fed

www.frbsf.org/research-and-insights/publications/economic-letter/2024/05/are-markups-driving-ups-and-downs-of-inflation/?utm_source=mailchimp&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=economic-letter

May 13, 2024

12

A New Barometer of Global Supply Chain Pressures - Liberty Street Economics

libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2022/01/a-new-barometer-of-global-supply-chain-pressures/

May 10, 2024

5

Measuring Inflation: Headline, Core and “Supercore” Services

www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2024/may/measuring-inflation-headline-core-supercore-services?utm_source=Federal+Reserve+Bank+of+St.+Louis+Publications&utm_campaign=7f7920c88d-BlogAlert_Manual_050324&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_c572dedae2-7f7920c88d-57428857

May 8, 2024

1

3

The Fiscal Impact of the Harris and Trump Campaign Plans | Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget

URL
https://www.crfb.org/papers/fiscal-impact-harris-and-trump-campaign-plans

Highlights & Notes

Based on data from CBO, we project deficits will grow from 6.5 percent of GDP in FY 2025 to 7.0 percent of GDP in 2035 under current law.

“Make [the] Trump Tax Cuts Permanent,” and has clarified on social media and in public events that this would not include extending the $10,000 State and Local Taxes (SALT) deduction cap. President Trump has also proposed restoring full expensing (bonus depreciation) for investments in equipment as well as research and experimentation “solely for companies that make their product in America.” We estimate these changes would increase deficits by a combined $5.35 trillion over ten years in our central estimate, with $5.10 trillion coming from extending all expiring individual and estate tax provisions besides the SALT cap and $250 billion from one possible structure for restoring expensing for equipment and research for domestic producers only