Why have climate change predictions been so WRONG? | Summary and Q&A
TL;DR
Climate change predictions have been largely accurate, as evidenced by data from computer models and observations. Misinformation and misrepresentation of predictions are often used to discredit climate science.
Key Insights
- 🛀 Climate change predictions have been largely accurate, as shown by comparisons between models and observations.
- 🫥 Older predictions from the 1970s were also broadly in line with observed warming.
- 😒 Climate scientists use ensembles of models to create more robust predictions.
- 💱 Skepticism and doubt around climate change predictions often stem from deliberate misrepresentation and motivated reasoning.
- 📈 Statistical literacy and understanding of graphs and statistics are crucial in evaluating climate change predictions.
- 💁 Climate change predictions inform us about the potential impacts of global warming and the need for action.
- 👂 The science behind climate change is clear, and the predictions are based on sound evidence.
Transcript
thanks to brilliant for sponsoring a section of this video I have a cold by the way scientists keep making predictions that the world will warm by one or two or three or however many degrees it is in 30 years time but why do they keep making these predictions if none of them have been correct so far you may remember climate scientist James Hansen f... Read More
Questions & Answers
Q: Why do climate scientists keep making predictions about global warming if none of them have been correct so far?
Climate scientists continue to make predictions because recent analyses show that their predictions have been largely accurate. The misconception that none of them have been correct arises from deliberate misrepresentation of the most extreme predictions.
Q: How do climate scientists ensure the accuracy of their predictions?
Climate scientists use ensembles of computer models, each representing different aspects of the Earth's system, to create statistical models. While no single model is correct, combining them provides a more accurate representation and allows for consistent predictions.
Q: Why do some people still doubt climate change predictions?
There are several reasons for skepticism, including the intentional misrepresentation of predictions by those with vested interests in maintaining the current fossil fuel-based system. Additionally, humans tend to accept information that aligns with their existing beliefs, leading to motivated reasoning.
Q: How do climate change predictions affect our future?
Climate change predictions inform us about the potential impacts of global warming, such as more extreme weather events and rising temperatures. Taking action based on these predictions can help mitigate the worst effects and create a more sustainable future.
Summary & Key Takeaways
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Scientists analyzed computer models used in climate change predictions and found them to be accurate in predicting global temperature increase from 2004 to 2020.
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Older predictions from the 1970s were also largely accurate, despite being less sophisticated.
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Climate scientists use ensembles of models to create robust statistical representations of reality, combining different models to make predictions.