SELL YOUR STOCKS WHEN THIS HAPPENS! | Summary and Q&A

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June 30, 2018
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Value Investing with Sven Carlin, Ph.D.
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SELL YOUR STOCKS WHEN THIS HAPPENS!

TL;DR

When shoeshine boys start giving investment advice, it's often considered a sign of an overpopulated and potentially risky market.

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Key Insights

  • 🤠 The enthusiasm of non-professional investors, such as shoeshine boys, in the stock market can be a potential warning sign of market saturation and risks.
  • 🫥 Historical events like the dot-com bubble and subprime crisis demonstrate the consequences of excessive public enthusiasm in specific investments.
  • 🏃 When everyone is talking about a particular investment or market trend, it is important to exercise caution and consider it a possible sell signal.
  • ⛽ The current surge in investment accounts and interest in stocks, fueled by platforms like Robinhood, may indicate the emergence of a similar phenomena with potential consequences.
  • 🤠 The behavior of shoeshine boys is not limited to stocks; their interest can extend to other investment classes like real estate or cryptocurrencies.
  • 😘 Investing in index funds is becoming more popular during uncertain market conditions, possibly driven by the desire for stability and lower risk.
  • 🙂 The volatility in the cryptocurrency market has somewhat dampened the public's enthusiasm, leading to a slightly quieter market in comparison.

Transcript

good day fellow investors I recently went to the shop to buy a new phone the lady there showed me what is there is to buy to the Apple store in Amsterdam to see a little bit what it is because I'm expanding into new social media side GTV Facebook so I want to just test a new phone and I came there and then she asked what do you do I said I do video... Read More

Questions & Answers

Q: What is the significance of shoeshine boys in relation to stock market trends?

Shoeshine boys historically symbolize the entrance of non-professional investors into the stock market, signifying an overpopulated market and potentially risky investing environment.

Q: How can the behavior of shoeshine boys serve as a sell signal?

When shoeshine boys, or individuals with minimal investment knowledge, start actively participating in the stock market, it indicates a high level of public enthusiasm, often preceding a market decline.

Q: Are there any historical examples of shoeshine boy phenomena impacting the stock market?

Yes, the dot-com bubble in 1999-2000 and the subprime crisis in 2007 are notable instances. In both cases, public fascination with specific investments led to significant market fluctuations and subsequent crises.

Q: What other indicators can be used to identify potential market risks?

Alongside the shoeshine boy phenomena, investors also watch for indicators such as a widespread interest in cryptocurrencies, stock tips from taxi drivers, and the general sentiment of the average investor.

Summary & Key Takeaways

  • The narrator visited an Apple Store and conversed with a saleswoman, who shared her belief that Tesla was a great investment despite common doubts.

  • The narrator recalls the old Wall Street saying that when shoeshine boys start imparting stock market tips, it indicates market popularity and potential risks.

  • Historical examples, such as the dot-com bubble in 1999-2000 and the subprime crisis in 2007, are highlighted as instances where public fascination with certain investments led to significant market fluctuations.

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