New Poll Shows How Trump Could Lose! | The Next Level Clip | Summary and Q&A

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December 22, 2023
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The Bulwark
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New Poll Shows How Trump Could Lose! | The Next Level Clip

TL;DR

Biden is ahead of Trump among likely voters but losing among non-voters, indicating a switch in the electorate.

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Key Insights

  • 😚 The New York Times poll indicates a realignment in the electorate, with Biden leading among likely voters but losing among non-voters.
  • 🥶 Reliable older voters who remember Reagan's Republican party are moving towards Biden.
  • 🉐 Democrats have gained more reliable voters, which has contributed to their success in off-year elections.
  • 😥 The degree of realignment, with a 15-point swing among voters and 10-point swing among non-voters, is significant but has not fully sunk in for many.
  • 🧑‍🏭 Motivation and turnout will be crucial factors in future elections, especially when Trump is on the ballot.
  • 🤩 Persuasion efforts should focus on white suburban voters, who play a key role in the realignment and turnout equation.
  • 🚱 Democrats have traded up by gaining more reliable voters, but the concern remains about motivating non-voters who are motivated by Trump.

Transcript

New York Times has a poll which shows Biden ahead of trump among likely voters among all voters including people who didn't vote in 2020 uh he's losing to Trump I mean it's hard for me to think that the people who didn't turn out for the highest turnout election in American history where we had like the easiest possible voting because of all the pa... Read More

Questions & Answers

Q: How does the New York Times poll depict the current standing of Biden and Trump among likely voters?

The poll shows Biden ahead of Trump among likely voters, indicating a favorable position for Biden.

Q: What is the significance of Biden's lead among non-voters?

Biden's loss among non-voters suggests a realignment in the electorate and raises questions about the motivation for turnout in future elections.

Q: How do older voters factor into the realignment?

Older voters who remember Reagan's Republican party are moving towards Biden, signaling a shift from Trump's Republican party.

Q: What is the difference in party registration and expected votes between 2014 and 2024 among voters?

Among those who voted in 2014, there is a 15-point switch from Republican registration to voting for Biden in 2024. Among non-voters in 2014, there is a 10-point increase in Democratic registration and an 8-point increase in expected votes for Trump.

Summary & Key Takeaways

  • New York Times poll shows Biden leading Trump among likely voters but losing among non-voters.

  • Turnout in the 2020 election was high, but it is uncertain if non-voters will turn out in significant numbers in the future.

  • The poll suggests a realignment in the electorate, with reliable older voters moving towards Biden and unreliable young voters showing dissatisfaction.

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