Earth at 2° hotter will be horrific. Now here’s what 4° will look like. | David Wallace-Wells | Summary and Q&A

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March 14, 2019
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Earth at 2° hotter will be horrific. Now here’s what 4° will look like. | David Wallace-Wells

TL;DR

Climate change will lead to catastrophic consequences, including extreme weather, rising sea levels, and a refugee crisis, with worst-case scenarios resulting in uninhabitable regions and irreversible damage to the planet.

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Key Insights

  • 💁 Climate change will transform and damage all forms of life on Earth, and we are already experiencing extreme weather events.
  • 👋 The best-case scenario of limiting warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius is challenging without unproven technology deployed on a global scale.
  • 😀 The threshold of a catastrophe is around 2 degrees of warming, with island nations and major cities facing significant risks.
  • 🎚️ The number of climate refugees could reach unprecedented levels, causing major societal and political challenges.
  • 🥺 The current trajectory could lead to 4.3 degrees of warming, resulting in catastrophic economic, environmental, and social consequences.
  • 🏬 Feedback loops, such as reduced arctic ice and the release of stored carbon, could further accelerate warming and make parts of the planet uninhabitable.
  • 💱 The potential outcomes of climate change, even in optimistic scenarios, are horrifying and require urgent action.

Transcript

Well, I think when we look outside our windows every day, we see a world that is basically stable, and even if we hear a lot about extreme weather, see horrible news of wildfires and droughts and heat waves that kill people all around the world, we still reorient our emotional expectations for what the world will be like in our own lives. And most ... Read More

Questions & Answers

Q: What is the best-case scenario for limiting global warming?

The best-case scenario is to limit warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius, but achieving this would require the deployment of unproven negative emissions technology on a global scale.

Q: How many climate refugees are expected by 2050?

The United Nations predicts that by 2050, there could be 200 million climate refugees, with a possibility of up to one billion. The scale of this crisis is unprecedented and exceeds the impact of the Syrian refugee crisis.

Q: What are the potential consequences of 4.3 degrees of warming?

If global warming reaches 4.3 degrees Celsius by the end of the century, it would result in $600 trillion in climate damages, six climate-driven natural disasters simultaneously in some regions, and more than double the current warfare.

Q: Are there feedback loops that could accelerate warming beyond human actions?

Feedback loops, such as the albedo effect and the release of methane from Arctic permafrost, have the potential to accelerate warming beyond what human actions contribute. These feedback loops could lead to even more catastrophic outcomes.

Summary & Key Takeaways

  • Climate change will drastically impact the world, deforming and damaging all forms of life.

  • To avoid a catastrophe, the best-case scenario is to limit warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius, but it is unlikely without the deployment of negative emissions technology.

  • Two degrees of warming, which is the threshold of a catastrophe, will make many island nations vulnerable to sea level rise and major cities in South Asia and the Middle East lethally hot.

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