A RECESSION AND STOCK MARKET CRASH ARE VERY UNLIKELY IN 2017 | Summary and Q&A

TL;DR

Despite viral videos predicting a 50-80% stock market crash, historical data, current market conditions, and government efforts suggest a recession or market crash in 2017 is highly unlikely.

Key Insights

• 🍝 Recessions do not occur as frequently as some believe, with only 3 recessions in the past 34 years.
• 🪘 The severity of the 2007-2009 recession and its long recovery period make another recession less likely in the near future.
• 🥳 Market valuations are not currently indicating overvaluation, with the S&P 500's forward PE ratio around 17.4.
• ❓ Wage increases in the US suggest positive economic growth and consumer spending.
• ❓ The Trump Administration's focus on the economy and growth-oriented policies reduce the likelihood of a recession or market crash in the near future.
• 👊 While unforeseen events like terrorist attacks can impact the economy, they occur infrequently and are difficult to predict.
• 🎮 The prevalence of doom and gloom videos and media coverage does not necessarily reflect the likelihood of a recession or market crash.

Transcript

good day subscribers thank you so much for joining me today I am Jeremy this is the financial education Channel and wait why am I even happy we're going toward Doomsday the Market's going to crash the recession's going to come we're all finished us little investors are going to have our money stolen away from us but wait wait wait wait wait I hear ... Read More

Questions & Answers

Q: How often do recessions occur?

Recessions occur approximately every 11.25 years, based on the number of recessions in the past 34 years.

Q: What caused the 2001 recession?

The 2001 recession was caused by the bursting of the dotcom bubble and the September 11th terrorist attacks.

Q: What caused the 2007-2009 recession?

The 2007-2009 recession was primarily caused by the subprime mortgage lending crisis, which is not currently happening.

Q: What is the current valuation of the stock market?

The forward PE ratio of the S&P 500 is around 17.4, indicating fairly priced valuations.

Q: Are wages in the US increasing?

Yes, wages in the US have recently started to go up, which is a positive sign for the economy.

Q: What is the focus of the Trump Administration?

The Trump Administration's focus is mainly on the economy, with policies aimed at promoting growth and job creation.

Q: Is a recession or market crash likely in 2017?

Based on historical data, current market conditions, and government efforts, a recession or market crash in 2017 is highly unlikely.

Summary & Key Takeaways

• The idea that recessions occur every 7-8 years is incorrect; in the past 34 years, there have been only 3 recessions, meaning recessions occur approximately every 11.25 years.

• The 2001 recession was caused by the bursting of the dotcom bubble and the September 11th terrorist attacks, events of a magnitude that rarely occur.

• The 2007-2009 recession, the most recent one, was a result of the subprime mortgage lending crisis, which is not currently happening.

• The current forward PE ratio of the S&P 500 is around 17.4, indicating fairly priced valuations, not overvaluation.

• Wages in the US have only recently begun to go up, which is a positive sign for the economy.

• The Trump Administration's focus on the economy and likely growth-oriented policies make a recession or market crash less likely.