Abhijit Iyer-Mitra on Biden Regime, Russia-Ukraine, Chinese Expansionism & India's Future | ACP 27 | Summary and Q&A

TL;DR

Renowned geopolitical expert discusses the progression of the Ukraine conflict and the mistakes made in assessing the situation, highlighting the need for better intelligence and strategic decision-making.

Key Insights

• 🛰️ One key insight is that there seems to be a lack of trust in Western and mainstream media when it comes to assessing the progress of the Ukraine conflict. The speaker mentions that he got some things right but also made mistakes due to not trusting certain sources.
• 🌍 Geopolitical experts and analysts like Abhijit believe that Russia is currently in a more advantageous position in the Ukraine conflict than the Western media suggests. They believe that Russia did not invade when the Americans were saying so and that the conflict may be longer and more drawn out than expected.
• 🇺🇸 The speaker mentioned his belief that Trump could manage Russia, although he acknowledges that Trump exacerbated the conflict. He suggests that the Russians did not invade Ukraine when the Americans were saying so, despite what sources like Bellingcat claim.
• ⚖️ The speaker acknowledges his mistakes when it came to predicting Russia's actions in Ukraine. He did not expect the invasion, and also underestimated the Ukrainian will to resist.
• 🔍 The speaker questions the credibility of sources like Bellingcat, stating that he prefers to listen to sources like American and British officials rather than organizations funded by the US State Department. He also questions Bellingcat's reports on the Syrian White Helmets and chemical attacks.
• 🇷🇺 The speaker suggests that Russia is facing difficulties in the conflict, but Ukraine is in a worse position. Russia has not yet mobilized its major reserves, while Ukraine is fighting with everything it has. The speaker also points out that the fighting seems to be concentrated in Bahmut, raising questions about the Russian strategy.
• 💣 The speaker compares the conflict in Ukraine to the French Vietnam War, suggesting that Russia is acting as the Anvil and Ukraine is the Hammer. He believes that Ukraine has absorbed a lot of blows, but eventually, the Russians will crack.
• 👌 The speaker believes that India should learn important military lessons from the Ukraine conflict. He mentions the need for improving Russia's ISR complex, developing electronic warfare capabilities, and standardizing artillery. The speaker also believes that investment in drones and submarines is crucial for a strong maritime strategy.
• 🌊 The speaker questions the need for India to invest in aircraft carriers, suggesting that focusing on submarines, destroyers, and frigates would be a more cost-effective maritime strategy. He mentions the importance of sea denial and the ability to defend Indian waters rather than investing in platforms that would be overkill for the literal.

Transcript

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Questions & Answers

Q: How did the expert's predictions about the Ukraine conflict differ from the Western media's assessment?

The expert correctly predicted that the conflict would escalate under the Biden administration, but underestimated Russia's invasion timing. He also questioned the accuracy of Western media reports and highlighted the importance of reliable sources.

Q: What factors contributed to the expert's incorrect prediction about the invasion of Crimea?

The expert's prediction was based on his belief that the Russian military was not ready to invade at that time. However, he failed to consider the extensive training and weapon supplies that Russia had provided to Ukraine, underestimating their ability to resist.

Q: Why does the expert believe that Ukraine's resistance will continue despite the challenging situation in Bahamut?

The expert suggests that Ukraine's determination to fight and their access to supplies, including training on advanced fighter jets, is contributing to their resilience. He believes that the Russian forces may be underestimating Ukraine's willpower to defend their territory.

Q: What lessons does the expert think India should learn from the Ukraine conflict?

The expert emphasizes the importance of a strong intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) complex to detect and destroy threats before they reach the battlefield. He also encourages India to focus on technological advancements and rationalize its military procurement process to achieve economies of scale.

Q: How did the expert's predictions about the Ukraine conflict differ from the Western media's assessment?

The expert correctly predicted that the conflict would escalate under the Biden administration, but underestimated Russia's invasion timing. He also questioned the accuracy of Western media reports and highlighted the importance of reliable sources.

Summary & Key Takeaways

• The geopolitical expert discusses the Ukraine conflict, acknowledging previous predictions that were correct, as well as some that were mistaken.

• He explains the importance of accurate intelligence and the need to learn from past mistakes in assessing international situations.

• The expert raises concerns about the current situation in Bahamut and questions the concentration of fighting in one area, suggesting that Russia may be underestimating Ukrainian resistance.