Stanford Seminar - Combining Physical and Statistical Models in Projected Global Warming

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EE380: Computer Systems Colloquium Seminar

Combining Physical and Statistical Models in Order to Narrow Uncertainty in Projected of Global Warming

Speaker: Patrick Brown, Carnegie Institution for Science at Stanford

A key question in climate science is How much global warming should we expect for a given increase in the atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gasses like carbon dioxide? One strategy for addressing this question is to run physical models of the global climate system but these models vary in their estimates of future warming by about a factor of two. Our research has attempted to narrow this range of uncertainty around model-projected future warming and to assess whether the upper or lower end of the model range is more likely. We showed that there are strong statistic...