Knowing where you are along this path also helps you understand when to go from traction, to transition, to growth.

1.  The Leading Indicator Survey

1a.  Product/Market Fit Survey (Created by Sean Ellis)

“How would you feel if you could no longer use [product]?”  The measure of success is if 40% or more respond “Very Disappointed.”

1b.  NPS (Net Promoter Score)

a.  They have the highest chance for generating a false positive
b.  It is hard to answer the question “how big of a market?” with this data and therefore hard to understand how much you should accelerate.

2.  Leading Indicator Engagement Data

The leading indicator survey data tells you what people say they would do (i.e. be very disappointed if the product disappeared) so the next step is to support that with data about what they are actually doing.

a.  Events or actions, not views
b.  The core purpose of the product

3.  The Retention Curve

Plot the % active over time (for various cohorts) to create your retention curve.  IF it flattens off at some point, you have probably found product market fit for some market or audience.

The question then becomes what/who is that market?  And how big is it?

Identify the characteristics of those that retained vs those that didn’t.  If you don’t know the difference, then you don’t know who your audience and market is.

a.  Key Demographics (Sex, Age, Location, Industry, Company Size, etc depending on the type of product)
b.  Time
c.  User Source

The second method is by using qualitative surveys to try and identify differences between those who retained and those who didn’t.

The bottom line, with out retention, accelerating growth is meaningless.  Your retention curve is the best proof.

4.  The Trifecta

1.  Non-Trivial Top Line Growth(Snapchat - 200K downloads)
2.  Retention (50% of downloads were active Daily)
3.  Meaningful Usage (The users just weren’t coming back daily, but there were taking a meaningful action - sending 10 pictures a day on average)

This process never ends primarily for one reason -  your market doesn’t sit still.  It is always moving.  These days markets are moving/changing at an accelerating pace.  As your market moves, your product needs to move with it making product/market fit a pulse that you need to constantly keep your thumb on.