Mysterious Women in the Bayeux Tapestry: Connecting History and Finance

Mysterious Women in the Bayeux Tapestry: Connecting History and Finance

The Bayeux Tapestry is a remarkable piece of artwork that depicts the events leading up to the Norman conquest of England in 1066. It is a visual narrative that tells the story of William the Conqueror and Harold II, the last Anglo-Saxon king of England. As we examine this historical artifact, we can draw interesting parallels to the world of finance and investing.

In the tapestry, we see scenes of Guglielmo (William) wielding his command staff, while a knight rides to inform the duke of the sighting of Aroldo's (Harold's) troops. Similarly, Aroldo's lookout spots the Normans approaching. This exchange of information and strategic decision-making is reminiscent of the market dynamics and the need for investors to stay informed and make timely decisions based on available data.

Speaking of finance, let's shift our focus to the Websim LONG Portfolio on the Italian stock exchange. The portfolio has shown an impressive growth of 37% since the beginning of 2023, outperforming key benchmarks such as the FtseMib (+25%), Eurostoxx50 (+17%), MSCI World (+17.70%), and MSCI Emerging Markets (+9.50%). This exceptional performance can be attributed to the resilience of the Italian and global economies, positive quarterly reports, and an optimistic outlook for future earnings.

The past month has seen a significant uptick in the industrial (+16%) and banking (+7.7%) sectors, which have been among the top performers both monthly and year-to-date. While caution is advised for the second half of 2023 due to uncertainties in economic growth and earnings, the market continues to trade at attractive multiples slightly above 9x expected earnings.

The geopolitical landscape remains uncertain, and monetary policies will be influenced by macroeconomic data. However, companies continue to demonstrate positive signs, particularly in terms of distributing capital through dividends and buybacks. Banks have not expressed major concerns about credit quality deterioration. Despite expectations of profit-taking after the strong rally in the first half of the year, these concerns have proven unfounded.

Now, let's take a closer look at the top and bottom performers in the blue-chip sector. Unicredit leads the pack with a remarkable 73% growth since the beginning of the year, followed by BPER (+64%), Iveco (+55%), Leonardo (+52%), and Stm (+47%). It is interesting to note that two of these top performers remain in the stock selection, while Stm was recently sold to secure some gains.

On the other hand, Diasorin (-21%), CNH (-12%), Erg (-10%), FinecoBank (-9%), and Tenaris (-7%) have experienced some setbacks. However, FinecoBank was opportunistically acquired at lower prices, taking advantage of the dip. Tenaris, on the other hand, has been part of the portfolio since the start of the year.

In light of the current market trend and the approaching summer holiday season, it is prudent to adopt a more cautious stance. August tends to be a quieter month in terms of microeconomic news, and the risk of negative surprises on the macro and geopolitical fronts could disrupt the market. As a result, it is recommended to take profits on Interpump (+17% since the beginning of the year) and increase the cash position from 10% to 20%.

In conclusion, the Bayeux Tapestry and the Websim LONG Portfolio offer intriguing insights into the interconnectedness of history and finance. Both highlight the importance of information, decision-making, and adaptability. To navigate the market successfully, investors should stay informed, make data-driven decisions, and exercise caution when necessary.

Actionable Advice:

• 1. Stay informed: Keep up with the latest news and market trends to make well-informed investment decisions.

• 2. Be adaptable: Recognize the need to adjust your portfolio and investment strategy as market conditions change.

• 3. Exercise caution: While optimism is important, it is crucial to remain cautious and take profits when appropriate, especially during uncertain periods.

By incorporating historical context and financial insights, we can gain a deeper understanding of the forces that shape our world and make better-informed investment decisions. The Bayeux Tapestry reminds us that even centuries-old stories can provide valuable lessons for the present.