"The Ten-Book Rule for Smarter Thinking: 10 Forecasts for the Near Future of Tech"

"The Ten-Book Rule for Smarter Thinking: 10 Forecasts for the Near Future of Tech"

In today's information age, where knowledge is just a click away, it can be overwhelming to navigate through the vast sea of ideas and opinions. How can we ensure that we are making informed decisions and staying ahead of the curve? Scott H Young, in his article "The Ten-Book Rule for Smarter Thinking," suggests that reading ten well-chosen books can provide us with a solid understanding of the expert consensus on any reasonable question we might have.

However, it's important to note that not just any ten books will do. Randomly selecting books on a subject won't necessarily lead us to the expert wisdom we seek. The key is to choose books that contain "new" and "useful" ideas, such as up-to-date textbooks, academic monographs, and canonical texts that the field cites as authoritative. By immersing ourselves in these well-chosen books, we can gain insights and perspectives that align with expert consensus.

But why is it important to understand the expert consensus? Well, as Young points out, it doesn't make us experts ourselves, but it helps us form educated opinions. By asking ourselves, "If I learned as much as an expert, what opinions would I likely form?" we can get close to this estimate. Discourse tends to be grounded in a consensus viewpoint, and by familiarizing ourselves with this viewpoint, we can engage in more meaningful and informed conversations.

However, self-conducted research isn't without its pitfalls. One major reason people fail to reach the expert consensus after reading ten books is because they picked the wrong books. It's crucial to choose books that encompass the dominant viewpoints in a field, rather than those that promote fringe or outdated ideas. By selecting books that represent the expert consensus, we can ensure that we are on the right track to smarter thinking.

Now, let's shift our focus to the near future of technology. In the article "10 Forecasts for the Near Future of Tech," we are presented with ten intriguing predictions that give us a glimpse into what lies ahead.

One forecast suggests that the next generation will have a nomadic decade of life and work. The traditional idea of settling down in one job or location is being replaced by a desire for a more flexible and varied lifestyle. This shift will have implications for the corporate world, as individuals seek to fulfill their many interests and skills through polygamous careers. This, in turn, will increase retention, workplace productivity, and enable companies to engage top talent that would otherwise be out of reach.

Another forecast highlights the rise of immersive experiences and the mainstream adoption of 3D creation. As we increasingly inhabit virtual spaces for gaming, socializing, and work, the need for rich, engaging, and personalized content becomes paramount. With advancements in technology and the accessibility of 3D creation tools, we can expect to see a surge in user-generated 3D content.

"The Stakeholder Economy" is another forecast that predicts a reinvigoration of emerging brands and local businesses, challenging the dominance of internet behemoths and global marketplaces. Decentralized organizations and the empowerment of customers and employees as owners will play a significant role in disrupting the current landscape. By giving consumers more control and fostering a sense of ownership, these emerging brands and local businesses will gain a competitive edge.

Additionally, the article explores the concept of opting in for ads and personalized experiences. Contrary to the trend of opting out for privacy reasons, the next generation may prefer transparency and personalization over anonymity. Artificial intelligence will play a crucial role in delivering personalized experiences that cater to individual preferences while ensuring security and comfort.

Furthermore, the near future of technology will witness a transformation in the way we work and collaborate. Every function of the enterprise will become a multi-player and fully immersive experience. The concept of working together with greater latency rather than working faster alone will become the norm. Imagine walking through your company's financials in a fully immersive way, visualizing growth rates and jumping into specific customer or expense details. This shift will revolutionize the way we interact with and understand our businesses.

Lastly, the article introduces the concept of "eduployment," which combines education and employment into a seamless process. This vertical integration allows individuals to identify a trade, acquire the necessary education, and secure a job or start a company. This model has the potential to unlock millions of careers and fuel the growth and resilience of small businesses. Moreover, the reverse franchise model, where small businesses join forces to reap the benefits of a conglomerate while maintaining autonomy, will level the playing field and provide consumers with the advantages of both small and big businesses.

In conclusion, the combination of the Ten-Book Rule for Smarter Thinking and the ten forecasts for the near future of tech offers valuable insights into how we can navigate the ever-changing landscape of knowledge and technology. To make the most of these insights, here are three actionable pieces of advice:

• 1. Be intentional in your book selection: Choose books that represent the expert consensus and dominant viewpoints in a field. This will ensure that you gain a solid understanding of the subject matter.

• 2. Embrace flexibility and multiple interests: Embrace a nomadic approach to life and work, where you can utilize your various skills and interests to find fulfillment. This mindset will increase retention, productivity, and open doors to new opportunities.

• 3. Embrace immersive experiences and personalization: Embrace the rise of immersive technologies and personalized experiences. By opting in for ads and embracing transparency, you can enjoy the benefits of AI-driven personalization while ensuring security and comfort.

By following these pieces of advice, you can enhance your thinking abilities and stay ahead of the curve in the ever-evolving world of technology and knowledge.