Can China Fall into the Deflation Trap? China entered a period of deflation last month, meaning a decline in the prices of goods and services, contrary to the major global economies. While the rest of the world is grappling with inflation, China is facing serious economic issues since its exit from the "zero-Covid" policy. The lifting of Covid-19 restrictions gave a boost to the Chinese economy, and there was hope that it would continue. Many businesses replenished their stocks in anticipation of the expected increase in demand. However, we are now witnessing this momentum fading away, with companies forced to dispose of their stocks at lower costs. This trend is particularly evident in the pork industry. Another affected sector is the automobile industry, with a price war, especially in electric vehicles.
Hatched by Lucas Charbonnier
Jun 12, 2024
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Can China Fall into the Deflation Trap? China entered a period of deflation last month, meaning a decline in the prices of goods and services, contrary to the major global economies. While the rest of the world is grappling with inflation, China is facing serious economic issues since its exit from the "zero-Covid" policy. The lifting of Covid-19 restrictions gave a boost to the Chinese economy, and there was hope that it would continue. Many businesses replenished their stocks in anticipation of the expected increase in demand. However, we are now witnessing this momentum fading away, with companies forced to dispose of their stocks at lower costs. This trend is particularly evident in the pork industry. Another affected sector is the automobile industry, with a price war, especially in electric vehicles.
On the surface, this decline in prices may seem beneficial for the purchasing power of the Chinese people. However, deflation poses a threat to economic recovery. Instead of spending, consumers are delaying their purchases in the hope of further reductions. After the global financial crisis of 2008, China invested 4 trillion yuan (approximately 586 billion euros at the exchange rate of that time) to stimulate activity. This extensive recovery plan significantly developed infrastructure, at the risk of creating unnecessary projects and increasing debt. If the government refuses to implement a stimulus plan, it is because the last time it did so, it led to the bursting of the real estate bubble. This crisis in the real estate market transformed into a crisis of confidence, which the authorities are keen to avoid repeating. In order to align with lower prices, countries that import a significant amount of goods from China will also seek to lower their prices. This could lead to layoffs, wage freezes or reductions, and a decrease in production for companies trying to align their prices.
Can We Experience Time? Time, in its true sense, is the experience of itself without being tied to any practical purpose. It correlates with our stream of consciousness. There are two aspects of time: subjective and objective. Time is present in all our experiences, and it would be impossible to experience it directly as it resides in movement. Our understanding of time eludes us. Saint Augustine explains that the essence of time appears elusive. In reality, time is the condition for the possibility of any experience, a transcendental value and a condition for the possibility of experience. We cannot experience time because time is not an object. Like space, it is a form that enables us to experience objects in the world. The experience of duration is a glimpse of "pure time," where we apprehend time itself when a present sensation revives a past sensation. This sensation allows us to become the person we were when we first perceived it.
In connecting these two topics, we see that China's deflationary situation and the concept of experiencing time both involve the perception of change and movement. In the case of deflation, prices are declining, and the economy is experiencing a slowdown. Consumers are delaying purchases, hoping for further reductions. Similarly, in the experience of time, we perceive the passage of time through the movement of sensations and the revival of past experiences. Both scenarios involve the anticipation of future changes based on present circumstances.
Drawing from these insights, here are three actionable pieces of advice:
- 1. Embrace flexibility: In times of deflation or economic uncertainty, it is crucial for businesses and consumers to adapt and be flexible. This may involve adjusting pricing strategies, exploring new markets, or diversifying product offerings to stay competitive.
- 2. Focus on long-term sustainability: Instead of solely relying on short-term gains, it is important for governments and businesses to prioritize long-term sustainability. This includes investing in infrastructure, promoting innovation, and implementing policies that support economic stability and growth.
- 3. Embrace the present moment: While we may not be able to directly experience time, we can cultivate mindfulness and embrace the present moment. By being fully present and engaged in our experiences, we can appreciate the passage of time and make the most of each moment.
In conclusion, China's deflationary situation and the concept of experiencing time both involve the perception of change and movement. The deflationary pressures in China's economy and the complexities of experiencing time highlight the need for adaptability, long-term sustainability, and mindfulness in navigating these dynamic situations. By embracing these principles, individuals, businesses, and governments can better navigate economic challenges and cultivate a deeper understanding of the passage of time.
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