The Future of AI: From Milestones to Mythmaking and Societal Implications

The Future of AI: From Milestones to Mythmaking and Societal Implications

In recent years, the field of artificial intelligence (AI) has witnessed significant advancements, prompting researchers to explore the potential outcomes and impacts of advanced AI systems. According to a study conducted by 2,778 top-tier AI researchers, several milestones are predicted to be achieved by AI systems in the coming years. These milestones include autonomously constructing a payment processing site, creating indistinguishable songs from popular musicians, and fine-tuning large language models.

Based on the predictions, it is estimated that by 2028, AI systems will have a 50% chance of achieving these significant milestones. This timeline appears realistic and aligned with the current pace of AI progress. Moreover, if scientific progress continues without interruption, there is a 10% chance that machines will outperform humans in all tasks by 2027, and a 50% chance by 2047. This forecast, which is 13 years earlier than a previous survey, highlights the rapid progress of AI.

Additionally, the study also explores the potential automatability of human occupations. It is projected that there is a 10% chance that all human occupations will be fully automatable by 2037, and a 50% chance by 2116. These findings shed light on the transformative nature of AI and its potential to reshape various industries.

While the advancements in AI and the potential outcomes are fascinating, it is crucial to consider the societal implications of these developments. Walter Scheirer, in his book A History of Fake Things on the Internet, emphasizes that the rise of disinformation and deepfakes is just another avenue for humans to tell stories and engage in mythmaking. However, it is important to recognize that the democratizing effects of digital technology have amplified the scale and lowered the entry barriers for storytelling and mythmaking.

In the past, the responsibility of storytelling and mythmaking rested with shamans, clergy, writers, journalists, poets, and artists. However, with the advent of digital technology, everyone now has the ability to create myths, tell stories, and amplify their voices. While this empowerment is undoubtedly positive, it has also resulted in information overload and the emergence of new mythology and stories driven by raw emotions. The limitless possibilities for creation and frictionless sharing across the globe have given rise to a mythological psychedelic experience that demands careful consideration.

In the realm of AI, there is a growing concern regarding the potential misuse and manipulation of technology. The integration of AI with professions that generate misinformation and propaganda has led to an increase in productivity for these "bullshit generators." This raises questions about the societal implications of AI automating knowledge work and replacing human agency. Brian J. A. Boyd highlights the loss of human sense of agency as algorithms take over organizing and bureaucratic aspects of society.

As we navigate the future of AI, it is crucial to address these concerns. Here are three actionable pieces of advice to consider:

• 1. Emphasize ethical AI development: As AI continues to advance, it is crucial to prioritize ethical considerations and ensure that technology is developed with the betterment of society in mind. This includes addressing biases in AI algorithms, ensuring transparency, and promoting accountability.

• 2. Foster digital literacy and critical thinking: With the democratization of storytelling and mythmaking, it is essential to equip individuals with the skills to navigate the digital landscape effectively. Promoting digital literacy and critical thinking can help individuals discern between factual information and misinformation.

• 3. Encourage interdisciplinary collaboration: The future of AI requires collaborative efforts between technologists, policymakers, ethicists, and social scientists. By fostering interdisciplinary collaboration, we can approach AI development holistically and consider its implications from various perspectives.

In conclusion, the future of AI is both promising and complex. While the predicted milestones and advancements are exciting, it is important to address the societal implications and potential risks associated with AI. By taking proactive measures, fostering ethical development, promoting digital literacy, and encouraging interdisciplinary collaboration, we can shape a future where AI serves as a positive force for humanity.