Guy Spier
@gspier
Joined Oct 25, 2023
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renewablewatch.in/2023/09/24/rising-volumes-recent-trends-in-indias-power-trading-sector/
Jan 17, 2024
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www.thehindubusinessline.com/news/power-market-coupling-riddled-with-challenges/article67415546.ece
Jan 17, 2024
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energy.economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/power/does-india-really-require-market-coupling-in-the-power-sector/103845248
Jan 17, 2024
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www.thehindu.com/business/power-trading-govt-asks-regulator-cerc-to-begin-process-for-coupling-power-exchanges/article66954653.ece
Jan 17, 2024
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www.financialexpress.com/business/industry-market-coupling-of-power-exchanges-by-fy24-end-3314577/
Jan 17, 2024
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business.outlookindia.com/markets/indian-energy-exchanges-growth-under-dark-clouds-due-to-proposed-regulatory-changes
Jan 17, 2024
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medium.com/p/47009e9715e2
Jan 2, 2024
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www.ft.com/content/95fc03c2-f11f-4c22-8a38-3e32046c5c78
Nov 1, 2023
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en.globes.co.il/en/article-former-shin-bet-chief-we-warned-against-the-gaza-concept-1001461109
Oct 30, 2023
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www.guyspier.com/i-learned-about-cycling-from-that/
Oct 25, 2023
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twitter.com/AlexGabuev/status/1501713416574193673
Mar 12, 2022
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www.kingjamesbibleonline.org/Proverbs-Chapter-31/
Sep 27, 2021
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www.guidesforbrides.co.uk/wedding-ideas/song-of-solomon-wedding-reading/
Sep 27, 2021
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justus.anglican.org/~ss/commonworship/marriage/readingspsalms.html
Sep 27, 2021
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twitter.com/ChrisBloomstran/status/1406377236966617089
Jul 1, 2021
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twitter.com/greenjeffs/status/1406392336624623616
Jun 20, 2021
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twitter.com/awilkinson/status/1376985854229504007
Mar 31, 2021
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twitter.com/ballmatthew/status/1362416050197958657
Feb 19, 2021
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twitter.com/ak_pani03
Jan 28, 2021
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twitter.com/trengriffin/status/1350663201038295047
Jan 17, 2021
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twitter.com/borrowed_ideas/status/1348418663393742850
Jan 11, 2021
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twitter.com/trengriffin/status/1347949260696821768
Jan 10, 2021
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twitter.com/threadreaderapp/status/1346536986383794179
Jan 6, 2021
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twitter.com/readwiseio/status/1346617899692257281
Jan 6, 2021
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twitter.com/david_perell
Nov 7, 2020
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medium.com/p/64680c9791f6
Sep 25, 2020
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twitter.com/david_perell/status/1244089929258250240
Aug 17, 2020
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medium.com/p/7d8a52219ed4
Jul 22, 2020
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Jul 8, 2020
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Jul 3, 2020
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Jul 2, 2020
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Jun 22, 2020
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Jun 14, 2020
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Jun 14, 2020
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medium.com/p/ab7768d0b2d2
Jun 14, 2020
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medium.com/p/48f36e48d4cb
Jun 14, 2020
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medium.com/p/3f6833662241
Jun 14, 2020
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medium.com/p/fd8aac26be13
Jun 14, 2020
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medium.com/p/c90fd38c201e
Jun 14, 2020
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medium.com/p/529ad104e091
Jun 14, 2020
3 Highlights
1/ Thread: Thoughts on $FB
Earlier today, I asked on twitter which of the big tech is most likely to have lower market cap in 10 years than it is today.
Perhaps predictably, ~54% people voted for FB.
Is the crowd exhibiting wisdom or too much first-order thinking?
2/ Let me make a case for both.
$FB's business model probably fails the Lindy test.
In 2012, it had zero revenue from mobile ads. IG was acquired in 2012 which also had zero revenue.
Of ~$80 Bn 2020 revenue of $FB, >90% comes from mobile ads. IG alone contributes ~$15 Bn.
3/ Think about the velocity of change for a second. The two things that make FB part of today's big tech club made zero revenue just 8 years back.
Here's the problem though. If the velocity of change remains true today, FB might have an issue.
4/ Thanks to regulatory scrutiny, today's or tomorrow's "IG" cannot be acquired.
What about the big blue?
$FB bulls get offended when someone says big blue might die soon since the data depicts a very different picture.
Big blue might not die anytime soon, but there's a but.
5/ Here's a simple question for you.
In 10 years, will the aggregate amount of time on big blue by North American consumers (whose ARPU is >5x than the rest of the world) be higher or lower than today?
There's a very good chance it will be lower.
6/ If big blue fails at some point, the same questions will haunt IG as well. It will be a vicious cycle looming over $FB if they fail to protect big blue.
If you want to get a high terminal multiple, you cannot have big questions looming large in the background.
8/ So yes, I can see how the next decade can pose some seriously existential questions to $FB.
I am a $FB shareholder, so obviously I do find the other side of the coin more compelling.
Zuck knows the bear case inside out. He has chips on his shoulders.
9/ There's a reason AR/VR/Hardware has 6k employees at $FB vs 1k at IG.
There's a reason Zuck is pushing to go deep into IG Shopping, payments etc.
For all its success, $FB remains a very much work-in-progress when it comes to extending the S-curve.
10/ Zuck has to be tremendously focused to uproot the obsolescence risk.
This is why Zuck probably doesn't want to buyback shares even though $FB has >$50 Bn cash lying around.
Nobody's batting average is 100%. If he misses a major transition, he needs it to reinvent the co.
End/ Under no circumstances, Zuck will want to stop building.
If $FB continues to exist and Zuck is at the helm in 2040 or 2050, I won't be surprised if it becomes the largest market cap company in the world.
But before it gets there, Zuck needs to kill the bear.
7/ On top of it, think about the possibility of 8 years of Dems controlled House, Senate, and White House.
Needless to say, Zuck doesn't have too many friends in either side of the aisle, but that's emphatically true for Dems camp.