OFs) occur largely independently of hydrometeorological floods, but can surpass their peak discharges by orders of magnitude in the upper river reaches (4–6). Glacier lakes dammed by abandone
Moraine-dammed glacier lakes in the Himalayas. (A) Distribution of moraine-dammed lakes in our study region in 1° × 1° bins. Bubbles are scaled to the total lake area, and color-coded to abundance. Reported GLOFs (yellow triangles) have occurred most frequently in the past 8 decades in regions where glacier lakes are largest (23). (B) Location of t...
g the most destructive natural hazards in the greater Himalayan region and the adjacent mountain ranges of the Hindu Kush, Karakoram, Nyainqentanglha, and Hengduan Shan (Fig. 1). Regional projections for
sistent with data from Himalayan dam breaks (SI Appendix, Fig. S3). We used a Bayesian variant of a physical dam-break model (24, 25) to predict peak discharge Qp from the product of V0 and the breach erosion rate k (Materials and Methods and SI Appendix, Figs. S4 and S5). In summary, we obtained 4.6 × 108 and 4.9 × 109 scenarios of V0 and Qp, resp...
k discharges span more than 7 orders of magnitude (Fig. 2). Based on a mean posterior rate of 1.26 GLOFs y−1 over the past 3 decades (23), we estimate a contemporary V100 of 33.5+3.7/−3.7 × 106 m3⋅s−1 and
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