Niche theory predicts that multivariate changes in climate should cause shifts in species distributions, disruption of extant communities, and formation of novel species associations (8–10), because each species responds individualistically (Fig. 1).
Because climate is a primary control on species distributions and ecosystem processes, novel 21st-century climates may promote formation of novel species associations and other ecological surprises, whereas the disappearance of some extant climates increases risk of extinction for species with narrow geographic or climatic distributions and disrupt...
It is increasingly likely that some end-21st-century climates will include conditions not experienced at present (“novel” climates) and that some present climates may disappear.
Others have argued that future novel climates may cause a reshuffling of communities (10, 12)
However, ecological systems are likely to exhibit strongly nonlinear responses to climatic forcing (6), so that forecasting ecological responses to novel and disappearing climates will be critical.
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