Top Highlights

• We demonstrate that global trade was remarkably resilient during the pandemic and that supply shortages would likely have been more severe in the absence of international trade.
• The future of globalization is highly uncertain at this point, but these new policies will likely slow global growth, innovation, and poverty reduction even if they benefit certain industries in certain countries.
• wide consensus that it has had substantial effects on global growth4, poverty reduction, and inequality (both across and within countries) – not to mention its political, societal, and cultural consequences.
• The first phase starts around 2015 with concerns about the impact of import competition from low-wage countries, especially China, on the labor market, and the impact of refugee flows, primarily in Europe.
• The second phase plays out during the COVID pandemic when new arguments against trade emerge: temporary shortages of personal protective equipment (PPE) and other items are attributed to the fragility of global supply chains. Demands for greater “resilience” through greater dependence on domestic production provide a novel justification for “reshor...

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