Top Highlights

• Moves driven by endogenous factors are hard to explain because very often the only people that know about endogenous factors are market makers and institutional actors, while journalists and bloggers will always use hindsight to assign some kind of macro or economic logic to moves, even when that logic could be wildly off base. In this case, it see...
• For now, a decent working theory is that monetary policy causes asset price inflation and procyclical fiscal policy causes goods and services and wage inflation
• Anytime you read anything super confident-sounding about how inflation works, question the author’s humility and assume they are probably a tad overconfident
• I lean toward the reacceleration narrative because of energy prices, and rising rents.
• For the last six months, rents have been rising and NYC rents (for example) just hit a new all-time high.

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