Driven by falling rates and rising transaction fees on the Ethereum network, shifting market dynamics are expected to narrow the gap between Ethereum staking returns and traditional risk-free rates in the coming quarters.
The spread between Ethereum’s Composite Staking Rate and the Effective Federal Funds Rate has remained negative since mid-2023.
However, two key factors could push the spread into positive territory by mid-2025, creating a “double-whammy effect,” according to crypto trading and institutional brokerage outfit FalconX.
According to futures markets, there is an 85% chance that the federal funds rate will drop below 3.75% by March 2025 and a 90% chance it will fall further to 3.5% by June, CME FedWatch data shows.
Staking yields are currently hovering around 3.2%, data shows.
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