A new science of forecasting is developing around improving people’s ability to make better all-things-considered predictions about future events by developing tools and techniques as well as ways of combining them into aggregate predictions. This field tries to answer questions like, for example, what’s the chance that the war in Ukraine ends in 2...
One approach in this category is Dr Phil Tetlock’s search for ‘superforecasters’ — people who have a demonstrated track record of being unusually good at predicting events. Tetlock and his collaborators have looked at what these superforecasters are actually doing in practice to make such good predictions, and experimented with ways of improving on...
Given this situation, we keep an eye on forecasts from researchers in AI safety and ML; for example, Ajeya Cotra’s forecasts based on empirical scaling laws and biological anchors (like the computational requirements of the human brain), expert surveys, and forecasts by a ‘superforecasting’ group called Samotsvety. Each of these forecasts uses a di...
The winning team was Tetlock’s, the Good Judgement Project, which has turned into a commercial forecasting outfit, Good Judgement Inc.
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