For much of the Cold War, the US and the Soviet Union were the two nuclear superpowers. Other states eventually did acquire nuclear weapons, but in terms of arsenals, those two just towered over all of them.
And what’s happened in the last couple of years is that China seems poised to expand its own arsenal. So in 2020, their number of warheads, best estimate, is in the low 200s — 220 or so. Last year, that was up to 400 something. And now we’re talking 500, and the projections suggest it could be as high as 1,000 by 2030 and 1,500 by 2035 — so really ...
concluding for myself that nuclear war between the US and Russia seemed most terrifying, because they had so many warheads between them that you could get this terrible, scary thing called nuclear winter
theoretically seems only likely to happen when you have thousands of nuclear warheads detonated.
AI-enabled warfare changes the risk of nuclear war. You can even just have AI integrated in conventional warfare
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