Top Highlights

• The starting point is to distinguish between a mistake made amid the fog of war and a systematic error of judgment. We can do nothing about the fog of war. But systematic errors are avoidable. This book is about why systematic errors are made, how they result in bad decisions and how to make better decisions.
• Calamity loves the overconfident. This is because overconfidence tempts us to take bigger and bigger risks.
• In 1980, Shelly Taylor, a psychologist, published a controversial book entitled Positive Illusions.1 Taylor’s theme (supported by substantial research evidence) is that most people are out of touch with reality most of the time. For instance, whereas depression is popularly regarded as seeing things as worse than they are, Taylor argues that depres...
• A decision is evidence-based when the following four conditions are met:   Claims are supported with data.   The limits of the data are understood.   The approach to interpretation is clear.   Contradictory data are also considered.
• “Power, in the business of tomorrow, will flow to those who have the best information about the limits of their information.” Alvin Toffler