Top Highlights

• people who believe in ESP do not understand probability as well as nonbelievers, and are therefore more likely to attribute paranormal explanations to extreme events.5THE GAMBLERS' FALLACYLet's go back to the roulette wheel. As you're watching the ball land on successive spins, you notice that it landed on black the last four times. If you had to p...
• Gilovich and his colleagues then asked college players to shoot free throws and predict whether they would make the next basket given how they felt. According to the hot-hand theory, if they felt confident, like they were "in a zone," they should be able to sink more shots. However, there was no association between the players' predictions and thei...
• whether the media coverage for a past presidential election was biased, and, if so, in what direction. One third thought it was biased, and of those, 90 percent thought it was biased against their candidate.'8 Perceiving
• Other researchers showed both a rigged "successful" demonstration of ESP, and an unsuccessful demonstration, to skeptics and believers. While the skeptics tended to recall both demonstrations accurately, those who believed in ESP tended to recall the unsuccessful demonstration as successful.'"
• It's difficult, but a good place to start is by asking three questions: (1) Do you want this belief to be true? (2) Do you expect this event to occur? and (3) Do you think you would perceive things differently without these wants and expectations?46 If the answer is yes to these questions, you should be very careful in how you interpret your percep...