A surge of Medicare spending on hospitals and other services later this decade will push U.S. health care expenditures to outpace inflation and top $7.2 trillion by 2031, federal actuaries said on Wednesday.

That turnaround will significantly boost spending this year — especially in the private sector, where medical inflation is expected to hit 7.7%, compared to 3% in 2022, according to the estimates from the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services' Office of the Actuary

By 2031, health care will account for 19.6% of the gross domestic product.

The forecast shows Medicare experiencing the highest hospital spending growth, ranging from 7.8% to 8.1% annually from 2025 to 2029 as the last of the baby boomers age into the program and enroll.