Nan Wang’s Hatched Ideas

The Hidden Cost of Being Right Without Knowing How Sure You Are

The Hidden Cost of Being Right Without Knowing How Sure You Are

Jun 5, 2026

程序为什么总想把人留住：类型系统的边界与奖励设计的诱惑其实是同一件事

程序为什么总想把人留住：类型系统的边界与奖励设计的诱惑其实是同一件事

Jun 4, 2026

1 views

68%

Why Good Probabilities Need Good Counterfactuals

Why Good Probabilities Need Good Counterfactuals

Jun 3, 2026

1 views

85%

The Best Systems Do Not Guess Less, They Update Better

The Best Systems Do Not Guess Less, They Update Better

Jun 2, 2026

1 views

89%

Why Good Type Systems and Good Statistics Are Both About Knowing When to Trust a Shortcut

Why Good Type Systems and Good Statistics Are Both About Knowing When to Trust a Shortcut

Jun 1, 2026

1 views

How to Learn from What You Cannot See, and Defend What You Cannot Trust

How to Learn from What You Cannot See, and Defend What You Cannot Trust

May 31, 2026

1 views

71%

Why the Best Decisions Need a Synthetic Control for Judgment

Why the Best Decisions Need a Synthetic Control for Judgment

May 30, 2026

1 views

74%

Why the Future Belongs to People Who Measure Dependence, Not Just Produce It

Why the Future Belongs to People Who Measure Dependence, Not Just Produce It

May 29, 2026

1 views

72%

Why the Best Product Teams Treat Learning Like a Science

Why the Best Product Teams Treat Learning Like a Science

May 28, 2026

2 views

为什么最让人上瘾的系统，反而最应该被怀疑

May 27, 2026

2 views

63%

When More Data Lies: The Hidden Fragility of Inference in Clustered and Panel Settings

When More Data Lies: The Hidden Fragility of Inference in Clustered and Panel Settings

May 26, 2026

1 views

88%

Why Smart Agents Need Sampling, Not Certainty

Why Smart Agents Need Sampling, Not Certainty

May 25, 2026

1 views

The Hidden Architecture of Useful Agents: Why State, Tools, and Uncertainty Belong Together

The Hidden Architecture of Useful Agents: Why State, Tools, and Uncertainty Belong Together

May 24, 2026

2 views

58%

Why Intelligent Systems Fail Without Rhythm, Attention, and a Nervous System

Why Intelligent Systems Fail Without Rhythm, Attention, and a Nervous System

May 23, 2026

2 views

Why Good Models Need Two Kinds of Memory

Why Good Models Need Two Kinds of Memory

May 22, 2026

1 views

84%

Why Good Explanations Need a Counterfactual Stage

Why Good Explanations Need a Counterfactual Stage

May 21, 2026

4 views

78%

Why the Best AI Systems Need a Binary Gate Before They Count

Why the Best AI Systems Need a Binary Gate Before They Count

May 20, 2026

2 views

72%

Why Great Systems Teach in Advance of Readiness

Why Great Systems Teach in Advance of Readiness

May 19, 2026

2 views

82%

不要把数据当事实：从原始值到曝光指标的认知陷阱

不要把数据当事实：从原始值到曝光指标的认知陷阱

May 18, 2026

2 views

58%

The Hidden Art of Estimating What Never Happened

The Hidden Art of Estimating What Never Happened

May 17, 2026

2 views

The Hidden Skill Behind Great AI Results: Designing for Human Attention

The Hidden Skill Behind Great AI Results: Designing for Human Attention

May 16, 2026

2 views

Why Surrogates Fail Unless You Treat Features Like Causal Paths

Why Surrogates Fail Unless You Treat Features Like Causal Paths

May 15, 2026

2 views

Why Better Products Learn One Variable at a Time

Why Better Products Learn One Variable at a Time

May 14, 2026

2 views

88%

When You Cannot Randomize, Learn to Borrow Strength Carefully

When You Cannot Randomize, Learn to Borrow Strength Carefully

May 13, 2026

4 views

76%

Why Better Models Fail When They Learn the Wrong Differences

Why Better Models Fail When They Learn the Wrong Differences

May 12, 2026

3 views

71%

Why Skill Creation Looks More Like Attention Than Documentation

Why Skill Creation Looks More Like Attention Than Documentation

May 11, 2026

3 views

Why the Fastest Learners Need the Widest Education

Why the Fastest Learners Need the Widest Education

May 10, 2026

3 views

71%

Why Great AI Systems Need a Nervous System, Not Just a Brain

Why Great AI Systems Need a Nervous System, Not Just a Brain

May 9, 2026

2 views

88%

Why AI Feels Smart Until You Ask for Judgment

Why AI Feels Smart Until You Ask for Judgment

May 8, 2026

3 views

84%

The Real Future of Orchestration Is Synthetic: Why Good Systems Are Built from Borrowed Parts

The Real Future of Orchestration Is Synthetic: Why Good Systems Are Built from Borrowed Parts

May 7, 2026

3 views