The transition form senior to manager relies on people skills and client relationships more than technical skills in your service line. The transition from manager to senior manager even more so. To make partner, you need to be able to bring in business - so 100% on client relationships.

So to last long in big 4, you need to manage the transition and recognize the changing environment as you move up the ladder.

I beat myself up over not being able to gauge how much time things will take and as a senior I’ve over promised and under delivered

I was just thinking though about how many projects we have that go over budget, all the overlapping audits and other crap… none of these people are able to accurately guage the time this crap is going to take are they lol?

They say your work accounts for only 10% of what contributes to your promotion. 70% is perception and what people think. So the other comments are correct but it is about the intangibles to survive long term in Big4